248
FNUS73 KAPX 010911
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Tuttle RX...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
511 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...There is a chance for rain showers at the fire site at
ignition time, but that ends by noon. Clouds will decrease in the
afternoon, which will help temperatures and winds increase, and
humidity levels to fall. Winds will be south at 10 to 15 mph and
gusty at ignition. Those winds veer southwest and west through the
afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible in the afternoon.
Humidity bottoms out at 30 to 35 percent late in the afternoon.
Those west winds will slowly subside tonight.

Elevated fire danger this afternoon and evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........35 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west 12
                    to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 29
                    mph.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph increasing to west 29 to 31
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4600-5700 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (138.0-443.0) increasing to very
                    good to excellent (1329.0-1653.0) late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........87  84  89  66  57  48  35  31
Weather cov.....CHC
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............52  55  59  65  70  71  70  69
RH..............80  77  69  56  45  36  36  35
20 ft wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..12  12  15  15  15  16  16  16
20 ft wind gust.22  22  25  25  25  29  29  29
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.4 2.1 4.6 5.3 5.6 5.7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.18  17  20  21  29  31  29  29
Vrate kt-ft.....150 138 270 443 1329163116121653
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  VGD EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........96 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....West 25 to 26 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15
                    mph early in the evening.
Mixing height.......4800-5200 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Very good (1208.0) decreasing to poor (86.0)
                    early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........32  42  38  45  46  59  58  41  24  29  33  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............68  65  61  58  56  53  52  52  50  48  47  44
RH..............37  41  48  57  64  71  74  71  77  80  83  89
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 ft wind spd..15  15  15  10  10  10  6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.25  25  25  20  20  20  15  15  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 4.8 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.26  25  15  15  15  13  13  12  12  12  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....13651208185 119 136 113 113 97  95  96  86  91
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........56 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 6 mph
                    early in the morning, then shifting to the
                    north early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    east around 7 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 12 mph shifting to the east 7 to 9
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2600 ft AGL increasing to 1300-2900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (61.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........35     57     57     53     57     53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............43     44     52     58     58     58
RH..............93     89     71     57     57     56
20 ft wind dir..NW     NW     N      E      E      E
20 ft wind spd..8      8      7      9      9      9
20 ft wind gust.14     14     12     12     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1800   2200   2900   2300   1600
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..NW 10  NW 12  N 9    E 7    SE 9   E 9
Vrate kt-ft.....85     207    199    199    211    152
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...JZ
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412857.0/APX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov