917
FNUS73 KAPX 070716
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Reid Lake RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Passing high clouds this morning at the burn site
gradually thicken/lower this afternoon in advance of increasing
rain shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly at 5 PM.
Prior to rain arrival, a brief window exists for RHs to fall to near
30 percent. Light winds this morning turn breezy out of the southeast
with gusts as high as around 20 mph through the afternoon/evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........32 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......2300-3400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (347.0-705.0).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  38  51  63  70  78  85
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  62  64  66  66  66  65
RH..............42  36  34  32  33  33  34
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..10  14  14  14  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.16  20  20  20  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  18  18  20  21  20  20
Vrate kt-ft.....347 545 614 664 705 589 490
Ventrate Cat....PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms. Patchy
                    fog.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 8 mph overnight, then shifting to the
                    west around 9 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......500-1500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (43.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87  89  91  89  86  84  81  78  76  74  71  69
Weather cov.....SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............62  60  55  54  52  52  51  51  51  51  50  49
RH..............43  49  64  69  77  80  86  89  89  89  93  100
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..13  13  13  10  10  10  8   8   8   5   5   5
20 ft wind gust.20  20  20  16  16  16  12  12  12  9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Haines index....5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.17  15  15  12  15  12  12  9   8   8   8   9
Vrate kt-ft.....263 174 151 68  103 88  70  57  48  45  43  47
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........58 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph shifting to the northwest around 12 mph
                    with gusts to around 24 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2900-4300 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    3400-5100 ft AGL late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 2400 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (50.0-437.0) increasing to fair to
                    very good (573.0-1045.0) late in the morning,
                    then increasing to good to very good
                    (985.0-1286.0) early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to poor to good (393.0-651.0) late
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........68     65     76     65     75     76
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............51     54     57     62     64     62
RH..............93     90     80     62     58     60
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      NW
20 ft wind spd..9      9      12     13     13     12
20 ft wind gust.14     14     22     25     25     24
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1100   2200   4300   5100   3400
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4      4
Transport wind..W 9    W 13   W 20   W 24   W 24   NW 18
Vrate kt-ft.....50     135    437    1045   1228   651
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413303.0/APX
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov