468
AXNT20 KNHC 101045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes along the coast of northwest
Senegal near 17N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N23W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 04N31W to 03N39W and to the coast of Brazil
near 01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-37W, and also
south of the trough from 02N to 07N east of 24W to the coast
of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ between 26W-30W, and within 180 nm either side of the
ITCZ between 37W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging extends westward across central Florida and
to the eastern Gulf. A trough is over the NW Gulf from near
29N93W to just east of Brownsville, Texas. No significant
convection is currently occurring with this trough. A frontal
system is moving east-southeastward across eastern Texas.
Numerous thunderstorms containing frequent lightning are moving
eastward across the southeastern U.S. Some of this activity is
reaching the coastal waters of the western Florida panhandle.
Latest ASCAT data and buoy observations generally reveal gentle to
moderate southeast winds over the Gulf, except for light to
gentle southeast to south winds over the eastern half of the Gulf.
The exception is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh
southeast winds are present. Both buoy observations and overnight
altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas in the range of 2
to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf, 4 to 6 ft over the central and SW
Gulf sections and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridging will shift southward
through Sat in response to a cold front that will be moving into
the far NW Gulf this morning. Ahead of the front, a trough extends
from 29N92W to 26N97W. Gentle to moderate southeast winds are
over the Gulf, except for light to gentle southeast to south winds
are over the eastern Gulf. The cold front will move southeastward
across the basin, reaching from near southeastern Louisiana to
South Texas by Fri afternoon, from near Fort Myers, Florida to the
NE Mexico and South Texas border by early Sat, then stall from
the Straits of Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually
weaken with its remnants lifting back north as a warm front
through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow
the front into Sat evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in
southeastern Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A rather weak pressure gradient is over the basin. Partial
overnight ASCAT data shows gentle to moderate trade winds over
most of the basin, with the exceptions of winds of fresh speeds
over the extreme southeastern section of the sea, and fresh to
strong east to southeast winds just north of Honduras. Seas are in
the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft near
the Gulf of Honduras and lower seas of 3 to 4 ft over a few
sections of the central Caribbean.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted south of 13N
between Colombia and 80W. Isolated showers are possible over the
eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridging will slowly shift
eastward through the weekend. The associated gradient will support
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and
southeastern Caribbean through the weekend. Winds may increase
some early next week. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong east
winds will pulse primarily at night across the Gulf of Honduras
through Sun. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southeast winds
over the northwestern Caribbean and south-central Caribbean off
Colombia early next week, between the high pressure over the
western Atlantic and lowering pressure across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and over Colombia. These winds may pulse to near
gale fore over or near the Gulf of Honduras by Tue night. Gentle
to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Relatively weak high pressure is present over the central and
western Atlantic. A 1017 mb high center is analyzed at 29N60W.
A pair of troughs are analyzed at 06Z: One extends from near
28N57W to 19N62W, and the other from 21N51W to 12N56W. The
first trough is underneath a broad mid to upper-level trough
that is observed on satellite water vapor imagery to be north of
14N between 48W and 70W. The second trough is under upper-level
divergence present east of the trough. An ASCAT pass over the
first trough nicely showed the northeast to southeast wind shift
across its axis. Increasing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 21N between 48W and the
second trough. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 18N to 29N
between 50W and 60W. Similar activity is north of 28N between
70W and 75W. Overnight ASCAT data passes revealed gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds west of about 55W, with the
exception of fresh south to southwest winds north of 27N between
69W and 80W, and solid moderate southeast winds east of the
first tough to near 55W as seen in the ASCAT pass. Seas with
these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Slightly higher seas to 7 ft are just
north of the area between 71W and 77W. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds are east of 55W to the coast of Africa, except for
light to gentle winds from 23N to 31N between 47W and 55W. The
fresh winds are confined over the eastern Atlantic north of 13N
and east of 40W. Seas with these winds are in the range 5 to 7
ft, with the exception of an area of 6 to 8 ft seas that exists
from 14N to 18N between 29W and 40W. These seas are due to N
swell. They are forecast to subside by early Sat as the swell
decays.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge
will slowly shift eastward-southeastward through Sat, ahead of a
cold front that will approach from the northwest. Expect fresh to
strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front tonight through
late Fri between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. The front is
expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night, then
weaken as it moves east reaching from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas by late Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish into Mon
as the dissipating front continues to drift east of the area, and
high pressure builds between the Carolinas and Bermuda in the wake
of front. Looking ahead, southeast winds will increase and seas
will build late Mon through Tue night off northeast Florida and
north of the Bahamas, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead
of the next weak front that is expected to move across the
southeastern United States.

$$
Aguirre