Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
328
FNUS71 KBGM 011729
FWSBGM
Spot Forecast for 300 Forest...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
129 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure passing to the north on Thursday will bring a dry
cold front through Northeast PA with winds turning from SW to NW
between 8am and 11am Thursday. Winds will be strongest just ahead
of the front Thursday morning with SW winds near 25 mph at higher
elevations of the Poconos above 2000 feet. RH should rise as the
front moves through but there is not expected to be any
precipitation Thursday morning. RH falls behind the front late
Thursday morning into the afternoon with skies clearing. There is
a pocket of dry air above 4000 feet that could mix to the surface
mid afternoon and cause RH to fall below forecast values by 3 to
5% but as of now it looks unlikely to mix down.
High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday with no
precipitation expected. The center of the high passes to the north
so it is unlikely that winds become completely calm on ridge tops
but will at least be in the 10 to 15 mph range with not much
gustiness especially through the overnight hours. RH will likely
stay elevated much of Friday as moisture begins to move back in as
the high pressure departs. Winds will be rotating around as the
high pressure passes to the east.
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Southwest at 16 to 24 mph before 8 am becoming
Northwest at 12 to 18 mph by 10 am.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............801 pm
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................37 early in the morning increasing to 90 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8 11 14 15 16 17 22 28 33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............60 62 64 66 67 68 69 69 70
RH..............69 65 58 50 47 43 41 39 39
20 FT wind dir..SW W W NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..18 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 13
20 FT wind gust.24 22 22 22 21 20 20 19 19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.7 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW NW
Transp wind spd.17 18 20 20 21 21 22 22 22
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............37 54 68 75 78 80 87 90 86
Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 10 to 18 mph shifting to the
northeast around 3 am.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph shifting to the northeast 8
to 12 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
SUNRISE.............555 am
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................65 early in the evening decreasing to 7 late in
the night.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........28 22 17 28 38 49 50 51 52 53 54 55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............67 65 63 60 58 55 54 52 50 49 49 48
RH..............45 48 52 58 59 66 69 71 77 80 83 86
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N N N N N N N N NE NE
20 FT wind spd..13 13 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.19 18 17 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW N N N N N N NE NE NE NE E
Transp wind spd.21 20 18 16 15 13 12 12 10 9 8 8
LVORI...........1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
ADI.............65 38 16 9 9 11 10 10 9 8 7 7
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......East winds 9 to 10 mph shifting to the
southeast 10 to 13 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast 12
to 13 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
SUNSET..............802 pm
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 59 in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........57 59 53 51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............49 55 63 66
RH..............86 74 58 52
20 FT wind......NE 9G10 E 10G13 SE 10G13 SE 12G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1700 3600 4300
Transport wind..E 8 SE 10 SE 12 SE 12
LVORI...........5 3 1 1
ADI.............8 24 52 53
Haines index....4 4 4 3
$$
Forecaster...Gill
Requested by...Brian Williamson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412812.1/BGM
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brianwilli@pa.gov