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000
FXUS63 KBIS 161201
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
701 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers are likely through tonight, with
  thunderstorms likely this morning, mainly in the south central.
  The highest precipitation chances are across central and
  eastern North Dakota. Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler temperatures start today and will continue into the
  weekend. The coldest days will be Thursday and Friday when
  highs will mainly range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Chance of a rain/snow mix is possible Wednesday through
  Friday, mainly across the central and north (30% chance).
  Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The showers are ending quicker than any model has in the west,
so adjusted PoPs in the west down to almost nothing. These
showers have been mixing down very gusting winds in the central
and southeast. We put a SPS out for winds gusting near 50mph for
the next 2 hours.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Surface low pressure is located in central South Dakota, with
the upper low over eastern Colorado. The low level jet (LLJ) is
still kicking storms to fire in the Dakotas. South Dakota
currently has stronger storms, with 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE and
30kts of shear in central to northern SD. This will be moving
into North Dakota by 6am CT. They are not expected to be severe
but small hail may be possible in the south central if it holds
together.


The rest of today will be more of a stratiform rain as the rain
wraps around the low. The general thunder risk from SPC only
goes as far west as Stark county. The LLJ is on the northern
moving air side of the low (east side), so as the low moves
east so will the thunderstorm chances. By this afternoon most of
the energy for thunderstorms will be east out of our area. QPF
for the rest of this system is around half an inch in the
central and east, the west will see a lot less with a shortwave
ridge moving in. Wednesday night a cold front from the next low
pressure system moves through. Dropping temperatures to the 20s
and low 30s overnight. Highs Thursday will only be in the mid
30s west to mid 40s east. Chances of snow and rain will again be
possible Wednesday night through Friday. The snow chances are
around 30 percent in the north where temperatures will be around
or below freezing. Otherwise the snow elsewhere will melt into
rain as it falls. Snow accumulations are not impactful at all at
less than 0.5 inches. It may not accumulated anyways with
warmer ground temperatures and the possibility of it mixing with
rain. It will be breezy to windy all week with the pressure
gradients tightening between lows and the cold front moving
through Wednesday. Fire weather concerns should remain low
since we are getting all this rain and temperatures will stay on
the cooler side. The northerly flow of the back side of this
system will move through Friday, bringing the coldest air of the
week down. Highs will be slightly cooler than Thursday.

Saturday flow turns northwest with slightly warmer 850mb temps
as a small ridge in the Pacific Northwest moves on shore. So
temperatures Saturday will be back in the 40s. Sunday will be
back to average temperatures as the ridge moves in, with another
low pressure behind it. Models are very different on the
strength and position of this clipper type low. There is hardly
any PoPs from this. After this moves through Monday,
temperatures seem to want to warm back to where were before this
active pattern. Monday starts a potential warming trend back to
the lower 70s maybe. The higher end of the NBM spreads have 70s
for the south central and southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR with MVFR mixed with these rain showers. Winds will could
gust up to 50mph in these showers mainly affecting KBIS, KMOT,
and KJMS. Ceilings will lower to IFR at a minimum late this
morning and mostly remain there until tonight.

Winds will shift
from the east to the north at 20kts.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith