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000
FXUS65 KBOI 230253
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
853 PM MDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.DISCUSSION...Thin high clouds are streaming over the region
tonight as an upper ridge axis approaches from the west. Deeper
moisture and showers/thunderstorms remained well to the south
today, over the central NV. The passage of the ridge axis and
accompanying shift to southwest flow aloft will transport deeper
moisture into SE Oregon and far SW ID on Tuesday. Still see a
minimal chance (10-20%) of high based showers and thunderstorms.
The dry lower levels will support gusty outflow winds to 40
mph. Current forecast is on track for this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under thin high clouds. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms over SE Oregon and far SW ID after 21Z Tuesday.
Surface winds 5-15 kt through Tuesday except up to 40 kt near
showers and thunderstorms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20
kt, becoming southwest after 18Z.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds less than 10 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...Dry westerly
flow will continue into Tuesday with high clouds at times. A
weak ridge will build into the area and bring warmer
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will warm
about 5-10 degrees on Tuesday compared to today, and warm a
degree or two on Wednesday. A weak system over CA will bring
enough instability for showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon on Tuesday along the NV border (10-20% chance) and
over the mountains areawide on Wednesday afternoon (20-40%
chance).

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A weak upper level
trough will move into the Pacific NW on Thursday, bringing
cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms expected, mainly over the higher terrain each
day, as the cool air aloft moves over the region combined with
high sun angles. The main center of the trough moves overhead on
Friday and Saturday, with temperatures a few degrees below
normal. After Sunday, the trough will move east, but a deep
upper low will move across the Gulf of Alaska, placing our area
in broad upper level troughing and southwest flow aloft by
Sunday or Monday. A 20-60% chance of showers will continue over
the weekend into Monday, with the highest chances each afternoon
over the mountains. Temperatures should rebound a few degrees
Sunday and Monday as southwest flow develops. Snow levels will
fluctuate through the period, but should generally remain above
5500 feet MSL. Winds will be breezy through the period. Much
cooler conditions and low snow levels possible next week as the
center of the trough is forecast to move inland at some point.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA