Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282101
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
301 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CLEARING SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE PLAINS COUNTIES
THAT DID NOT REACH BELOW 28 DEGREES LAST NIGHT. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AREAS JUST EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS
COULD REACH BELOW FREEZING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. AREAS
UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LOWS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID 30S DUE TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AIDING IN
DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH MORE NNW FLOW ALOFT BY THE AFTERNOON A MOUNTAIN WAVE SET-UP
IS POSSIBLE. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW ON MODELS HAS GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 45 FOR MOUNTAIN TOP. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOWER WARMUP FOR AREAS THAT
WILL HAVE REACHED BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE AFFECTED BY
THE MOUNTAIN WAVE FORMATION IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELAXING ON THURSDAY AND BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE PLAINS WILL GET A LITTLE PUFF OF COOLING
THURSDAY AND WILL STILL LAG BEHIND IN WARMING ON FRIDAY AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS HOLD IN COOLER PLAINS AIR AT LOW LEVELS. STILL
COULD GET INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE PICTURE FOR THE SUNDAY TROUGH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE A LITTLE WITH TIMING AND DETAILS...CONSENSUS
HAS A STRONG LEAD WAVE PASSING NORTH OF US EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE
TAIL END OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING ACROSS US SUNDAY NIGHT OR POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THE RUNS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE BACK
END OF THIS...BUT THERE IS ALSO PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS ON HAVING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE NORTH OF US SO THE MAIN THREAT IS WITH THE
STRONGER PIECE OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. WITH SOME QUESTION ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WE WILL STICK WITH THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. FOR THE
PLAINS THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY WITH THE
TROUGH...AND/OR A BRIEF SHOT OF UPSLOPE LATE SUNDAY...SO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD. IF THEY LAST LONG ENOUGH...IT
COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN DENVER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS IS A
SMALL CHANCE. DECREASING COOL WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
THROUGH TUESDAY...PROBABLY DRIER BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH WINDS BEING
VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO DRAINAGE THIS
EVENING. SOME LIGHT GUSTING WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ038-042-043-045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...BOWEN



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