Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 311028
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
428 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TODAY. DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS NOW...THIS SHOWER BAND HAS HAD 40 MPH WINDS WITH IT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...PROBABLY NOT AS STRONG FURTHER SOUTH BUT
EXPECT SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THIS
MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER BANDS MUCH OF THE DAY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE WEST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THE TROUGH AXIS COME THIS AFTERNOON AND
THAT WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BY
SUNSET THE TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE AND THE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXITING. CAPES WILL BE VERY LOW SO ONLY EXPECTING THE
WIND WITH THE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. GENERALLY
EXPECTING GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE THOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR SEVERE GUSTS IN ORGANIZED LINES...NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH
PRECIP THOUGH SO A LOW THREAT. NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER CONVECTION
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER MOISTURE...AGAIN MAINLY A WIND
THREAT BUT MORE OF A CHANCE OUT THERE.

WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SOME COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LOWER...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I LOWERED TEMPS A
LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING...DRIER AIR...AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF COLORADO. THE JET LEVEL
FLOW DECREASES AND BECOMES ZONAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY...WEAKER...BUT STILL DOWNWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS TAKE OVER. THE
PLAINS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PROGGED ON TUESDAY.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THROUGH THE PERIODS...BUT THERE IS SOME
PROGGED AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE PLAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE GENERALLY FROM THE 0.30 TO 0.80 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT READINGS RANGE FROM THE 20S F WEST TO
LOWER 50S F EAST THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS TINY BIT OF CAPE
PROGGED OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE
PROGGED MAINLY FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
CONCERNING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS...THERE ARE TINY
AMOUNTS PROGGED HERE AND THERE NOW AND THEN FROM THE VARIOUS
MODELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY
INSIGNIFICANT. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 0-10%S THROUGH THE PERIODS.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C COLDER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED READINGS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED IMMEDIATELY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COLORADO
ALL FOUR DAYS. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ALL FOUR
DAYS. MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS
ALSO SHOW UPSLOPE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT
ACROSS THE DENVER AREA...POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A
SHIFT TO WEST WINDS AROUND 14Z...THEN NORTH WINDS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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