Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181638
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1038 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
SOME CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS STILL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF DENVER AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT
DO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY HIGH
BASED...WITH LIMITED RAINFALL. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR THE ACTIVITY. HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR
NORTHEAST COLORADO STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

LIGHT SOUTHERLY BECOMING A MORE SOUTHEAST AT KDEN AND KAPA AND
WESTERLY AT KBJC. LATEST RAP CONTINUES TO KEEP WINDS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY. THE NAM STILL INDICATING A SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT.
WILL INDICATE MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGH
20Z...THEN TREND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAF
TRENDS SEEM REASONABLE. A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...
SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA AIRPORTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
DENVER. POSSIBLE CEILINGS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET AGL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...D-L
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...D-L


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