Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 061628
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR SHOWING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE CO AND WY BORDER MOVING SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE AREAS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR PARK COUNTY AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE ARE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARK COUNTY DUE TO INCREASED HEATING BUT
WITH LITTLE SHEAR ONLY EXPECT HIGH WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINAL
HAIL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED FIRST 6 HOURS OF FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A HIGHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AT THIS TIME.
RAISED POPS 10-20 PCT OVR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING
THE AREAS AROUND FT COLLINS AND GREELEY. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD LOW
CEILINGS ON THE PLAINS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROLLING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED TODAY...AND
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE ANTICIPATED
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SFC AND ALOFT.
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION PAST FEW DAYS
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN STREAM NORTH OF COLORADO. OUTFLOW FROM LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS EARLY LAST EVENING PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOIST NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OFF THE MTNS AT
THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHICH CONTINUES TO PILE MOIST AIR UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE.
PRESENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
1.25 TO 1.35 INCH RANGE THIS HOUR. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE
NUMBERS TODAY. HOWEVER...AREAS FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN FROM NORTHERN AREAS NEXT
24 HOURS. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN THE 30 TO 40 PCT RANGE STILL
APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TODAY ON THE PLAINS. SEVERE WX CHANCES
LOOK QUITE LOW TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE
WHERE GREATER SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN A FEW NEAR
SEVERE STORMS AFTER 2 PM TODAY.

FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFICULT
TO PIN POINT ANY FORCING MECHANISMS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. SO
STORM FORMATION OVER THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL LARGELY BE THE
PRODUCT OF DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS OVER SRN SECTIONS OF PARK COUNTY AS THE WIND
AND STABILITY PROFILE COULD FAVOR A BRIEF SEVERE T-STORM OR TWO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LITTLE CHANGED EXCEPT ON THE FAR NERN PLAINS
WHERE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW DOWN FROM THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE
PRECIP CHANCES FALLING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
COOLING...EXPECT PERHAPS OVER AND ALONG THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND ERN
SECTIONS OF PARK COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS COULD LINGER WELL
BEYOND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD LITTLE DIFFERENT
FROM THOSE THE NIGHT BEFORE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE BUT REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH...A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST...AND A TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
U.S. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WL KEEP THE PW VALUES HIGH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE. WL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH CAPES IN THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE. SELY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN CO COULD HELP TO INITIATE A
DENVER CYCLONE IN THE AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD A BIT
OVER COLORADO AS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST MOVES INLAND. THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE IT SHIFT WITH AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH OVER EASTERN CO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT MORE BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. OVERALL WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR MOST OF
THE CWA. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH THE FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO CO FM THE SOUTH...SO CHC IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SLGT CHC PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTN/EVNG TIME FRAME. OVER
THE WEEKEND...RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AND START TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS MOISTURE
FM THE SOUTH WL GET PINCHED OFF SO POPS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AT
THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VIS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 02Z
WITH CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTION NE OF THE
AIRPORT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...BOWEN



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