Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 281546
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
946 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WAVE CLOUD HAS DISSIPATED BRINGING CLEAR SKIES TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
UPPER 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FREEZE
WARNING EXPIRED THIS MORNING AND LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT WITH ONLY THE COLD PRONE AREAS REACHING
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...A WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED
DUE TO THESE AREAS BEING PREVIOUSLY FROZEN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY OVER THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS AS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
THINNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL AGAIN. STILL LOOKING FOR NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE LOW 30S. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 AM THIS
MORNING. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP.
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY...EXPECT MID TO UPPER 50S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION...AND BARELY ANY CLOUDS.

WITH WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS DUE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
PLAINS...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND ONTO THE NEARBY
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH FAVORABLE MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP.
HOWEVER...CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IS LIMITED TO AROUND 25-30 KTS AND
SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE RATHER WEAK. AS A RESULT...MOST PEAK GUSTS
SHOULD BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH PERHAPS 50 MPH ABOVE
TIMBERLINE/EXPOSED WIND PRONE RIDGES. WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW
LYING AREAS LIKE GREELEY-LOVELAND COULD STAY A BIT COOLER
ESPECIALLY IF MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDINESS THICKENS SUFFICIENTLY BY
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED WAVE CLOUDS A BIT BASED ON
CROSS SECTIONS AND SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY PRODUCTS...AND ALSO
NUDGED DOWN TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

THE FAST MOVING NORTHERN U.S. SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES ON THE PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
STATE WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL LIKELY LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING A BIT...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED WARM TEMPS ALOFT BUT BETTER DOWNSLOPING AND MIXING.
STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH. WILL KEEP SOME
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST. CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EVEN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECTS NORTHEAST...OR IF A SECONDARY LOBE OF ENERGY DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 936 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS FORECASTED
TO GO VARIABLE BEFORE SWITCHING EASTERLY THEN DRAINAGE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BOWEN



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