Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 272122
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
322 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

The upper low continues to lift east into Kansas and Nebraska,
with wrap around moisture continuing the showers and thunderstorms
over the area. A few thunderstorms east of a Sterling to Limon
line will have the potential to be stronger with hail up to an
inch and gusty outflow winds, however as the day wears on and the
moisture decreases, the chances will decrease. North to
northeasterly winds across the plains with gusts to 30 mph will be
decreasing through the evening. Light winds overnight and clearing
skies will allow minimum temperatures to cool into the upper 30s
to mid 40s over the plains. With moisture decreasing, am not
expecting any fog to form. A weak ripple in the flow may bring
isolated snow showers over the mountains overnight, with little to
no accumulations expected.

On Saturday, slight upper ridging will allow for warm advection,
allowing for max temperatures to warm into the 60s and lower 70s
for the plains. Moisture in the westerly flow will bring another
day of diurnal convection to the mountains then spreading over the
plains during the afternoon. Low CAPE values between 100 to 500
J/kg, so no severe weather will be expected. Weak troughing over
the plains will produce light southeasterly winds over the plains,
which will help focus the showers up near the Cheyenne Ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Models have weak zonal flow aloft for the CWA Saturday night and
weak southwesterly flow aloft Sunday into Monday evening. By
Monday night, an upper trough is progged to move into Colorado.
The QG Omega fields have weak neutral to very weak upward motion
progged for the CWA through the five periods. There is a pretty
weak surface pressure gradient progged for the CWA through the
period, so normal diurnal wind patterns are a good bet. Overall,
models have pretty decent moisture progged for the forecast area
all five periods. There is pretty decent cape progged over much of
the CWA during the late day periods. The lapse rates are pretty
steep too, more so over the western half of the CWA during the
afternoon and evening periods. The QPF fields have minimal
measurable rainfall Saturday evening over the western CWA.
Coverage and amounts are higher late day Sunday and late day
Monday. For pops, will stay the course with mainly 20-40%s for the
late day periods. For the later days, Tuesday through Friday,
models have upper troughiness over the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday,
then an upper ridge moves into well into next weekend. There is a
cold front for Tuesday. Will keep the chance for late day showers
and thunderstorms going through Wednesday, then a slight chance
for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Most thunderstorm activity has now moved over the eastern plains
with just showers left behind over the urban corridor. Ceilings
have improved to 7000 feet or more, and will continue to improve
and clear out. Gusty north to northeasterly winds have already
decreased and will be heading back toward drainage overnight.
Light winds are expected through 18z Saturday.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kriederman
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...Kriederman



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