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000
FXUS65 KBOU 160939
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
339 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER TEXAS. APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT THERE IS A SHORT WAVE OVER NEVADA-UTAH WHICH IS
PRODUCING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL
BE DRY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SO EXPECT JUST HIGH BASED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE WEAK AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MOISTURE WILL HANG ON OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KIMBALL TO AKRON. THIS AREA
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS. WITH GOOD SHEAR AND CAPES UP TO
2000 J/KG A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AIRMASS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...ON MONDAY A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION . IN THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE WILL BACK ITS WAY INTO
THE CWFA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
MDLS SHOW FAVORABLE CAPE AOA 1500 J/KG. ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A POTENTIAL DENVER CYCLONE IN THE AFTN WHICH WOULD ACT
AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR TSTMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION...THE MDLS ALSO INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN CO IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR TSTM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO DECREASE SOME BUT IT WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...FAVORABLE CAPE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
FEW AFTN AND EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...THE MDLS CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE AMS TO BECOME WARMER
AND DRIER. THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS BUT MAINLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVNG.
&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 12Z. LIGHT WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 18Z. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS FROM 12-15Z...NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
THOUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE DENVER AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BECAUSE OF A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THE STORMS WILL BE WEAK...BUT MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS MOISTURE TODAY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
MOVING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...SO THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE BURN AREAS IS NEARLY ZERO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER