Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 010212
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
812 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 755 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FALLING APART OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY...THEY MAY STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE
REDUCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. ALSO LOWERED CLOUD
COVERAGE A LITTLE BIT...FROM NEARLY CLEAR NORTHEAST...TO CLOUDY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGES TO FRIDAY FORECAST...STILL LOOKING
LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND ISOLATED STORMS
SPREADING TO THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

WEAK SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. SO FAR ALL OF THE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OVER AND WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE...BUT STILL
THINK WE COULD SEE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
LOTS OF SHALLOW CUMULUS...BUT JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF ANYTHING DEEP
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS GRADUALLY FADING. HOWEVER THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOWER TO GO AWAY...AND WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM
THAT OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF DENVER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THIS IS ALREADY COVERED...LOWERED THE LOWS IN THE DRIER AIR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR BUT IT WILL BE DRIER. STILL
SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PRETTY
QUIET.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

SOME LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY EVENING...
MAINLY SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS PALMER DIVIDE...SHOULD BE
ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN BEGINS SHIFTING EAST INTO COLORADO. CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS
TO BE IN NORTHEAST UTAH. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS
PLAINS...COMBINATION OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND INVERSION
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. FOR SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
COLORADO AS UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS
SHOW MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO COLORADO.
BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FOOTHILLS ONTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT LINGERING CAP AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT
THIS ACTIVITY. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ACROSS PLAINS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ON MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. MOISTURE
AND INCREASING LIFT OVER MOUNTAINS TO RESULT IN GOOD CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO IN THE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF LIFT AND
UPSLOPE TO RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST
AREAS EACH DAY ALONG WITH BETTER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. COOLER
AIRMASS TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AND MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. AIRMASS LOOKS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WARMER...RESULTING IN A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
AIRPORTS...WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS
TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

WITH A DRYING AIRMASS AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...NO FLOOD THREAT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER THAT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...RTG
HYDROLOGY...D-L/GIMMESTAD


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