Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 082216
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
316 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA RIGHT NOW. NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE FOR THE CWA
RIGHT NOW. STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AND DECREASE IN
SPEED. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS BENIGN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE WESTERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
FAR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BRISK NORTHWESTERLIES. FOR MOISTURE
...MODELS SHOW A BIT OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THEN
IT IS EVEN DRIER ON TUESDAY. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON THE QPF FIELDS TONIGHT ON TUESDAY. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES
...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S
READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
GRADUALLY EDGING EAST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. BY FRIDAY AN AREA OF COOLER AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE MAY EVEN BE A PRELIMINARY HINT OF THIS ON THURSDAY.
EVEN SO THE COOLER AIR IS STILL QUITE MILD AND THERE IS LITTLE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ALOFT YET. ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF US LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH THOUGH...WITH MOST MODELS STRONGER
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING AND WIND...EVEN THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS OFFER JUST A LITTLE
BIT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. RIDGE REBUILDS RIGHT AWAY AGAIN...SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE AND WHETHER THERE
WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF US EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
EVERYTHING IS POINTING TO CONTINUED MILD AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE
DRAINAGE WINDS PICK UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN
MAYBE WEAK SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTERLIES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NO
CEILING ISSUES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...GIMMESTAD
AVIATION...RJK


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