Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 161726
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1026 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

The cold airmass covering the plains will moderate some
particularly along the edges today, such as up along the Front
Range and over the Palmer Divide where afternoon temperatures
should manage to rise into the 30s. In the deeper cold air across
the northeast corner of the CWA, readings will struggle to reach
the lower 20s. Otherwise, a dry stable post trough environment
will remain in place next 24 hours. Few changes planned for
first period forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

A cold morning--will it be the coldest of the winter? The lowest
reading we`ve seen so far is -26 at Fraser, with several spots
around -12 on the plains, but the coldest spots may still lose
another couple degrees. We are starting to see a little drainage
along the foothills bringing a few degrees of warming there. The
wind chill highlight is mainly for the cold though there is a
little wind in most places. It seems to be handled about right.

Stagnant day over most of the area. There will be a few high
clouds, but still lots of sun working on low level inversions and
remaining patches of snow. It will stay colder in the valleys
with some erosion around the edges, leading to warmer readings
along the foothills and Palmer Divide, and on the mountain slopes.
Again, this seems to be handled well.

For tonight, the steady warming aloft may result in evening lows
in places that have drainage winds, including DIA. Elsewhere still
colder in the valleys but it should be at least 10 degrees warmer
than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Dry NW flow aloft will be across the area on Wed and then become
more WNW by Thu.  Overall will see warmer temperatures both days as
downslope low level flow becomes more dominant by Thu.  Readings on
Wed will range fm the lower to mid 50s around Denver with mid 40s to
lower 50s over the plains.  For Thu highs will range fm the lower to
mid 60s around Denver with mid 50s to lower 60s over the rest of the
plains.

On Fri the flow aloft will become more WSW with only some higher
level moisture shown by cross-sections. Thus dry conditions will
continue. Meanwhile downslope low lvl flow will remain in place
over nern CO, with another day of mild temps, as highs reach the
upper 50s to mid 60s once again.

Looking ahead to the weekend the longer range models continue to
show a strong upper level trough moving across the central Rockies.
Overall timing of this feature is still in question as the GFS is a
bit faster versus the ECMWF.  Meanwhile both models eventually show
an upper level low closing off over ern CO Sat night into Sun
morning before moving eastward into the central plains by Sun aftn.
Based on current data there would be a a good chc of snow over the
higher terrain Sat aftn thru Sat night and across nern CO Sat night
into early Sun.  If the system is able to close off then there would
be a threat for heavy snow across nern CO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 924 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Dry and stable VFR conditions likely for the next 24 hours. Light
southerly winds go east-southeasterly early this afternoon, then
back to a southerly drainage pattern this evening. Speeds should
generally stay under 10 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baker
SHORT TERM...Gimmestad
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...Baker



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