719
FXUS61 KBOX 010644
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
244 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Ohio Valley Friday builds slowly east this
weekend and crest over New England Sunday. This will provide dry
weather along with warm days and cool nights. The next chance of
showers, albeit very low, is Sunday night as weak low pressure
tracks south of the region. High pressure brings warm and dry
weather through the middle of next week, then the weather pattern
becomes unsettled toward the end of the week as a frontal system
approaches from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another beautiful day ahead for southern New England with mainly
clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures. Today, June 1st, marks
the official start to the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Should go
without saying it`s only a matter of when, not if, a hurricane makes
landfall along our coastline. While there have had numerous topical
storms, August of 1991 brought Hurricane Bob, the last landfalling
hurricane in southern New England. Take time today, this weekend, or
this month to review whether or not you reside in an evacuation zone
and what items you can buy right now to build out your emergency
kit. Because, let`s be honest, waiting to last minute will feel as
you are out shopping/fighting the crowds on Black Friday, minus the
deals/savings. For details on how to prepare for this hurricane
season please visit this link: noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

As for today`s conditions, surface high pressure and mid-level ridge
sits to our west and closed low over the Maritimes, this allows for
north/northwest flow and reinforces a dry airmass. While there will
be a bit of a chill in the air this morning, temperatures will
rebound nicely into the upper 70s and low 80s. Adding to this
already stunning day will be the low dewpoints/no humidity.
Seabreeze develops along the eastern coast of Massachusetts late
this morning, this onshore flow over waters cool SST and the cooler
airmass associated with the closed low off to the east/northeast
keep

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight: Mid-level ridge shifts over New England and deamplifies by
Sunday morning. Generally a clear-ish night though increasing mid
and high clouds from west to east, mainly the second half of the
night. Light winds and generally clear skies should allow for
another cool night ahead, while NMB was too warm, did keep with the
cooler MOS guidance. Lows are upper 40s and low 50s, the urban
centers like Hartford, Providence and Boston are slightly warmer
around 55-58 degrees.

Sunday: Surface high remains in control, while mid-level has become
more zonal and returns moisture aloft. A shortwave does help to
increase cloud cover during the afternoon with a low chance of a
passing shower, mainly area southwest of Hartford late afternoon
into the early evening. Otherwise another dry and warm day is on tap
with highs a few degrees warmer in the  low and middle 80s. Because
of southwest winds, the south coast of Rhode Island and southeast
Massachusetts are a tad cooler in the middle and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key Points...

* High pressure supports warm/dry weather through mid week

* Rain chances return Thursday or Friday

Details...

Quiet, warm, and dry weather continues for the first half of next
week thanks to a large areas of mid level ridging which moves from
the Ohio Valley on Monday to New England by mid week. This will keep
the forecast dry with slightly warmer than seasonable temperatures.
Monday will be the warmest day of the week with widespread low 80s
(inland) and 70s (along the coast). Thereafter expect highs in the
70s with cooler temps along the immediate coasts. The pattern then
looks to change as we go toward next weekend with a large mid level
trough digging into the Great Lakes directing more moisture into SNE
ahead of it which may materialize as showers as early as Thursday or
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update:

Today... High confidence.

VFR and dry. NNW winds less than 10 knots will give way to afternoon
seabreezes along the coast.

Tonight... High confidence.

VFR, dry weather and light/variable winds. MVFR in patchy fog
possible.

Sunday... High confidence.

VFR and dry. WSW to SW wind less than 10 knots will give way to
afternoon seabreezes along the coast.


KBOS TAF... High confidence.

VFR, dry and NW winds, seabreeze will develop late morning.

KBDL TAF... High confidence.

VFR, dry and NNW to NW winds 5-15 kt.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday... High confidence.

Very pleasant boating conditions, with weak high pressure slowly
building east and cresting over New England early Sunday. This will
provide light winds, locally onshore along with dry weather and
excellent vsby to the horizon. The only negative, is that water
temps remain chilly, only 55-60 degs.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley