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000
FXUS61 KBTV 242324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a strong cold front moved through today, expect cold
temperatures tonight with lows in the 20s.  Thursday will be dry and
sunny, but chilly with highs only in the 40s.  Another cold night
can be expected Thursday night before a warming trend starts Friday.
Rain chances return Saturday evening and last into early next week,
though showers would be on and off in nature and a washout on any
particular day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 657 PM EDT Wednesday...Precipitation has come to an end
across northern New York and Vermont, replaced by drier and
cooler conditions. There continues to be some cloud production
out over the forecast area this evening, though the dry air
behind a cold front and associated with high pressure will
slowly erode these clouds throughout the night. In a similar
fashion, dew points have been slower to drop as well, keeping
the surface relatively moist this evening, but these will drop
tonight and stay down tomorrow. Temperatures are on track in the
30s and 40s, but these will need to be watched over the next
few hours as lingering clouds could keep temperatures
temporarily milder than anticipated. Still, clearing skies are
expected tonight and will allow temperatures to drop into the
teens and 20s. Previous discussion below:

Previous discussion...Once today`s precipitation comes to
an end later this afternoon/evening, we`ll see drier weather for
a few days. The center of a surface anticyclone will remain to
our west overnight tonight into Thursday morning, so expect to
see some continued northwesterly breezes 5-15 mph tonight that
will diminish towards morning. Temperatures tonight will be cold
amid strong post-frontal cold air advection. Lows will reach
into the upper teens in the colder hollows of the northern
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, otherwise expect lows in the
20s elsewhere. These values are within a few degrees of record
minimums for some sites, but at this point no record lows are
forecast to be broken. The growing season has not yet begun, but
anyone with early vulnerable crops should take precautions to
protect them for the next couple of nights, especially in places
of higher elevation where the coldest temperatures are
expected.

The center of the high pressure system will gradually edge closer
Thursday, allowing for a sunny but chilly spring day with
diminishing winds. High temperatures will only top out in the 40s
for much of the area, which is a good 10+ degrees below seasonable
normals for this time of year. Dewpoints are forecast in the single
digits to teens during the afternoon, which will result in minimum
relative humidities between 25 and 35 percent.  Despite the low
relative humidities, winds will be light enough to preclude fire
weather concerns.

The center of the high will shift directly overhead by Thursday
night, setting up ideal radiational cooling conditions.  Have
continued to trend towards the NBM 10th percentile temperature
forecast.  Another cold night can be expected with lows in the low
to upper 20s...with some isolated lows in the teens possible in the
colder hollows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A high pressure system moving into the
Labrador Sea will be controlling our weather for the end of the
week, with Friday looking like a great day to be outside. Clear
skies and light winds will allow temperatures to rise rapidly
through the morning hours, reaching into upper 50s in valley
locations. Clouds will begin to move in during the overnight hours,
keeping temperatures near climatological normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A series of shortwaves will make their
way over the northeast throughout the remainder of the forecast
period, bringing a chance of rain every single day of the long term
forecast. The western edge of our CWA could see rain as early as 18z
Saturday, with the highest pops occurring just after 00z. By Monday
and Tuesday, we`ll start seeing above normal temperatures. The
current high temperature forecast shows widespread 70s reaching from
the Saint Lawrence Valley all the way into the Northeast Kingdom.
The additional thermodynamic instability associated with this
warming trend could lead to thunderstorm activity in the afternoon
of both days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Gradient winds are decreasing faster than
expected in general with northwesterly gusts 18kts or less. By
03Z, gusts will taper down with flow remaining north through
northwest for the remainder of the period. VFR conditions are
expected to persist with low level moisture being scoured out by
a dry airmass building across the North Country. Overall, the
next 24hrs will be very benign in terms of aviation weather with
high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Min Temp Records
DateKBTV     KMPV     KMSS     KPBG     KSLK
04-25  20|1919  17|1965  21|1974  23|2003  10|1956
04-26  20|1919  22|1967  22|1972  23|1972  12|1919

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Storm
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...WFO BTV