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000
FXUS62 KCAE 200616
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
216 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases into Saturday as a cold front moves toward
the area. With strong heating each afternoon, diurnally driven
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop.
The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area
Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in
numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday
and Monday are expected to be well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Isolated convection, mainly across eastern areas, indicating a
weakening trend. Some convection just NE of the FA drifting SE
could hang on across the NE FA this evening and early tonight.
Some guidance indicating some showers could develop along a sea
breeze boundary across the southern FA later tonight. Lows in
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Although a surface front will be moving southward through the
area, much of Saturday has been trending drier through the
daytime hours. Some warming aloft and weak lift should inhibit
any rain through the early afternoon. By late afternoon into the
evening, warming aloft may weaken enough to trigger isolated to
scattered showers/storms, especially over the eastern cwa and
the coastal plain where moisture may be better. Moving into
Saturday night, upper flow out of the southwest will bring Gulf
moisture over the surface front. In addition, an area of low
pressure moving along the surface front will push towards the
area from the west overnight. This will bring additional
moisture along with it into Sunday. Region will see increasing
rain chances overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. For Sunday,
more widespread stratiform rainfall is expected to overspread
the area as a surface wedge moves in from the north.

Temperatures Saturday will vary a bit from north to south as the
front sags southward. Northern counties will remain in the 70s,
while the southern CSRA will reach the mid to upper 80s. Sunday
will be a much different day across the entire forecast area as
much cooler air moves in on northeasterly winds. Additional
cooling from the expected rainfall and cloud cover, and the
warmest temperatures may actually occur early in the day, with
steady or falling temperatures possible through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rainfall should be rapidly moving out of the area by Monday
morning, bringing a return of drier weather for the remainder of
the week. Do expect low-level wedge flow to continue bringing
cooler temperatures across the area on Monday, with afternoon
highs well below normal once again. Still, with some sunshine
possible, readings will be a little warmer than Sunday`s highs
as readings are expected in the middle 60s.

As mentioned, Tuesday through Thursday will be dry. Another weak
front may move through the region towards the end of the forecast
period, but moisture remains limited. After the cool
temperatures of Monday, the region will see a moderating trend
to the afternoon highs and overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Some lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely
continue over the next couple hours but should remain far enough
away from the terminals to stay out of VC. Otherwise mid and
high clouds passing over the terminals with generally light and
variable winds. Winds shift more out of the north after
daybreak as a cold front shifts into the area. Shower and storm
coverage will be isolated once again so left out of the TAFs for
now, only mentioning a sct050 deck.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
ceiling and visibility restrictions Sunday into Monday with
possible developing wedge conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$