164
FXUS61 KCAR 072257
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
657 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the area tonight. Low pressure
crosses the region Wednesday night then exits across the
Maritimes Thursday. Another low should track south of the
region Friday then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. Another
low could approach Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
650 pm update...Diminishing winds and clearing skies are the
theme for tonight. Lows will drop into the 30s north and lower
40s in the southern half of the forecast area. The frost/freeze
program is not in effect yet in northern zones where 30s are
forecast.

Previous discussion...
A shortwave tracking southeastward from Quebec is bringing
mostly cloudy skies to the northern half of the forecast area.
This feature is bringing cool air advection, resulting in breezy
northwesterly winds. Further south, skies are mostly sunny as
the northwest winds downslope off the higher terrain. As the
shortwave pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes tonight, skies
will clear and winds will diminish. This will mean favorable
conditions for radiational cooling, particularly in the northern
valleys. Lows across the North tonight will be in the 30s, with
colder valleys falling to or just below freezing. Further south,
some high clouds will begin to move in towards daybreak. This
will keep lows in the lower 40s for Bangor and Downeast.

A low pressure system will begin to approach from the southwest
on Wednesday. Thus, clouds will increase from southwest to
northeast during the morning. Light to moderate rain will move
into areas south and west of Katahdin during the afternoon.
Further north and east, steady rain will likely hold off until
the evening. High temperatures will rise into the 50s to near 60
degrees before any rain moves in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure crosses the region Wednesday night, exiting
across the Maritimes late, with a trof extending back across the
forecast area. Aloft, an upper level disturbance also crosses the
region. Expect rain Wednesday night, tapering to showers late.
Upper level troffing persists north of the region Thursday,
while another disturbance moving around the trof crosses the
region. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers
Thursday. The upper trof should settle south across the forecast
area Thursday night, while surface low pressure tracks south of
the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers
across northern areas Thursday night. Across Downeast areas,
expect a chance of showers though a steadier rain is also
possible dependent on the low track. Upper troffing persists
across the region Friday, with uncertainty regarding the
location of the surface low. Will keep a chance of showers
across the region Friday due to the uncertainty. Slightly below
normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions are expected Friday night through Tuesday with
shower chances, along with possible intervals of steadier rain,
though the exact details remain uncertain. Uncertainty exists with
the timing/track of low pressure Friday night into Saturday which
will keep a chance of showers, possibly a steadier rain, across the
region. An upper level trof should cross the region Sunday with a
chance of showers. The upper trof should exit across the Maritimes
later Monday. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies with still a chance
of showers Monday. Low pressure should approach, from the west,
later Tuesday. However, timing differences still exist regarding how
rapidly the system approaches. Due to the uncertainty, have kept
just a chance of showers Tuesday. However, a more rapid approach
could allow for a steadier rain. Below normal level temperatures are
expected Saturday/Sunday. Near normal, to slightly above normal,
level temperatures are expected Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals through tonight and through
Wednesday morning. Southern terminals gradually deteriorate to
MVFR and then IFR during Wednesday afternoon with -RA. Northern
terminals could see MVFR by sunset. NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting
20-25 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight
into Wednesday morning. E-SE winds 5-10 kts Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain likely,
tapering to showers late. East/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming east/northeast.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of showers.
East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers north. MVFR/IFR
with a chance of showers or rain Downeast. East/northeast winds
5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Occasional IFR possible Downeast. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A
chance of showers. East/northeast winds around 10 knots.

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A
chance of rain or showers. Uncertain winds dependent on the location
of low pressure.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Still uncertain
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain well below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through tonight and Wednesday. Wave heights will be
in the range of 1 to 3 feet during this time. Rain could reduce
visibility on the waters by late Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Wednesday night/Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions
possible Thursday night/Friday dependent on the eventual track
of low pressure. A chance of rain or showers Wednesday night
through Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/MCW
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/MCW/Norcross
Marine...Clark/MCW/Norcross