Text Products for ESF Issued by CLE

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1145 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...FLOOD THREAT IS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MARCH FOR THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO RIVER WATERSHEDS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...

This is the sixth in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks through early spring
describing the potential for flooding across central and northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The rivers in the region are
divided by those that drain north into Lake Erie, and those that
drain south into the Ohio River. These outlooks are based on current
and forecast hydrometeorological conditions, including snowpack and
projected rainfall, which can either favor an above, average, or
below normal flood risk over the coming two weeks. Flooding could
occur with water levels having minor impacts even with a below
normal outlook. This outlook is valid for the two-week period from
March 14th to March 29th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

No snow pack currently exists across the region.

...STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across the region were generally below to well
below normal for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.
Streamflow values were generally in the 2nd to 30th percentile
over the past four weeks. Current streamflows are higher in the
below to near normal range, generally in the 15th to 45th
percentile. Soil moisture conditions were generally below normal
across the area.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

No ice is present on area rivers and streams.

...WATER SUPPLY...

The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reservoirs were near normal
winter pool elevations. Reservoir storage capacity is generally
80% to 100% at the projects.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

For the 6 to 10 day (Mar 19 to 23) outlook period, probablities
are leaning towards below normal temperatures while near normal
precipitation is favored. For the 8 to 14 day (Mar 21 to 27)
outlook period, near normal temperatures are favored while
probabilities are leaning towards above normal precipitation. The
latest seasonal outlooks for March through May favor above normal
temperatures and near to above normal precipitation across the
region.

...SUMMARY...

The threat for flooding over the next two weeks is near normal for
this time of year. It is important to remember that heavy rain can
cause flooding at any time. Extended hydrologic information will
be included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at
forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=CLE.

Observed and 5 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/cleveland. Ten day streamflow ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

The seventh Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
March 28th.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/cleveland and follow us on social media

$$

Greenawalt
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
