437
FXUS64 KCRP 112018
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
318 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chance (15-40%) showers and thunderstorms tonight
- Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall

The cold/stationary front that was south of BRO yesterday, has moved
north as a warm front the fine line on radar (19Z) shows the line
from HBV to IKG and then east off into the Gulf. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms (30-40%) will continue to break out, mainly ahead
of the front through the rest of the afternoon and early evening.
Overnight, a 500 mb shortwave trough will move into the Sierra
Madre. The GFS and a few CAMs produce a MCS which then devolves into
various solutions. The FV3 produces a supercell which moves through
Webb and Duval counties. The ARW produces a cluster of thunderstorms
that rides the northern forecast border with EWX and then moves into
the Victoria Crossroads. The ECMWF and the rest of the CAMs
(NAMNest/NAMDNG/Etc.) show that the main rain stays in the Hill
Country and moves east with the wave, and the rest of the night has
isolated to scattered showers (15-25%). Depending on the convective
initiation, there is a Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall in the
western part of the forecast area, but since the HREF and NBM shows
a mix of the two solutions with low probabilities (10-30%)through
the night, not expecting the rain to be there. However, if the GFS
camp of models is right, then it excessive rain is possible. In any
case, have gone with the NBM solution, although based on the morning
convection and ongoing showers, am leaning toward the ECMWF camps
idea with light showers now, and most of the rain going through the
Hill Country. Once the last bit of convection is through at 12z/Sun,
the rest of Sunday looks quiet, but will still have low chance (20-
30%) in the Victoria crossroads with the warm front still near by,
and the 1.5-2.0" PWAT values. Sunday night looks like it will be
quiet and continued muggy with us back in the warm sector and the
chances for rain are back in the northern part of the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Key Messages:

- A few strong to severe storms possible Monday

A mid-level low center pushes across north of the area on Monday
with a surface boundary through North Texas. We`ll see plenty of
CAPE build up over eastern portions of our forecast area, but should
stay capped much of the day. With increasing temps/dpts in the low
levels, it looks like that cap could break late in the afternoon or
early evening.  If it does, conditions would be good for
thunderstorm development with supercells possible. Forecast sounding
suggest the primary threat would be hail with 50+kt of 0-6km
shear...but mostly speed shear with little in the way of veering
winds. Low level (0-1km) shear values generally under 10 with a
pretty straight looking hodograph.  Steep lapse rates are also
noted.  It`s a very conditional threat, but if the cap can break
severe storms will be possible, primarily between 5 and 10 PM.

By Tuesday deep layer moisture decreases significantly, thus drying
things out for a couple of days. We will keep the surface onshore
flow, however and dewpoints stay up in the 70s. Our next disturbance
will enter the picture Thursday into Friday. There`s significant
uncertainty in the late week forecast at this time with some
guidance pushing a front through, but has in general backed off on
the strength of this since yesterday, and wouldn`t be surprised to
see that trend continue this late in spring. Will no doubt see some
adjustments in the forecast for Thursday-Saturday period, but at
least low end rain chances are there at this time.

High temperatures mainly in the 90s for the first half of the week
along with dewpoints steadily in the 70s (upper 70s east) will
continue to maintain a low to moderate heat risk through at least
Wednesday. Beyond that will depend on cloud cover and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The stalled front south of BRO yesterday, is moving north as a
warm front today. The boundary will serve a focus for showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening (chance
is 15-30%). The moisture return will continue to produce somewhat
hazy conditions through the afternoon and will produce MVFR and
some IFR CIGs overnight. A upper disturbance will bring a chance
(30%) for showers and thunderstorms for the late evening (03z/Sun)
in the Rio Grande Plains and the western Brush Country (COT/LRD).
By Sunday morning, the front is expected to be north of the
forecast, and the upper disturbance near the Victoria Crossroads
(VCT). Showers and thunderstorms may respark before end of the TAF
period (18z/Sun)

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds will veer southeast overnight and into Sunday. Increased
moisture and an upper level disturbance will lead to a 20-40%
chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Hazy
conditions are also expected to continue for the next few days.
East to southeast flow will continue at mainly light or light to
moderate levels through the end of the work-week. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Monday and again late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  90  77  92 /  10  20  10  30
Victoria          73  87  76  91 /  30  40  20  50
Laredo            75  98  77 101 /  20   0  10  10
Alice             74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  30
Rockport          77  87  77  86 /  20  30  10  40
Cotulla           76  97  78  98 /  30  10  20  20
Kingsville        75  92  77  94 /  10  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       79  87  79  89 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JSL