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000
FXUS61 KCTP 142139
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
539 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Severe thunderstorms are likely to develop late this afternoon
 through the evening in a corridor from eastern Ohio across the
 Allegheny Plateau into Central Pennsylvania
-Continued mild with no rainfall expected Monday-Tuesday
-Cooler temperature trend mid to late week with periods of rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Not a lot of moisture to work with, but storms have formed
and moved into far northern PA. Adjusted grids some, but fcst
holding up good. Severe watch up for much of the area until
03Z.

More information below.

Forecast mainly on track outside of relatively dry air, this
could limit severe potential later this evening. A band of
showers has formed to the north of the area, but generally
expect storms to develop across the northern tier.

Prev...
Mainly clear skies have lead to a slight uptick in
today`s MaxTs due to enhanced surface warming early this
afternoon. An initial round of light showers did bring some
cooling to NE PA, still north of the I-80 corridor where the
best instability will be in place later today. The warm front is
beginning to make way through central PA and will allow for
MaxTs and dewpoints to be on the increase for the next couple of
hours. Later this afternoon, a surface cold front that will
track generally north-to-south across the region.

This cold front will bring an Enhanced (3/5) Risk of severe
weather across central PA this evening. Hi-res model guidance
continues to suggest convection to develop along this cold front
and continue tracking across central PA later this afternoon
and throughout the evening hours. Initial thoughts are that a
broken line of storms will begin to impact the northern tier
closer to the 19-20Z (3pm-4pm) timeframe with marginally severe
conditions at the onset with damaging winds being the main
hazard across this area.

As this cold front approaches the Interstate 80 corridor, it
will move into an area with increased instability, becoming more
favorable for severe thunderstorms in the 21-22Z (5p-6p)
timeframe. Around this timeframe, clusters of broken storms may
organize into a narrow squall line with some potential for
discrete modes near the surface trough. In an environment with
favorable shear parameters and steep lapse rates at the low-
and mid- levels, a couple of tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled
out as this complex begins moving further to the south this
evening, especially along and west of the I-99 corridor. Further
to the east, slightly less shear will limit this potential but
there is a non-zero chance of a small, weak tornado.

Instability becomes slightly less favorable further to the
south this evening; however, severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds have the potential to continue through 02Z Monday (10pm
Sunday) ad they continue moving through the southern tier.
Drying conditions in the wake are expected Sunday night into
Monday morning. Brief, heavy downpours are possible;
however,the progressive storm motion is expected to limit short-
duration flooding risk across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and low pwat air will bring fair and dry weather
for early this week. Daytime highs remain mild for this time of
year in the 60-75F range. Lows will trend warmer night/night
from 35-45F Monday night to 45-55F Tuesday night. Forecast
soundings on Monday show drier air aloft, with some potential of
mixing down towards the sfc, thus have continued to lean towards
lower dewpoints in this timeframe.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mild but wet week in store for much of the upcoming week.

A cold front moves east of the area by Monday. An area of
weak high pressure gives way to warm front on Wednesday,
followed by an occluded front on Thursday.

Main change to this section is cooler temperatures for
Wednesday into Thursday, we had in the fcst earlier.

After Thursday, several secondary cold fronts will move across
the area with cooler temperatures by late week. While the
showers will likely end by the start of the weekend, there
will be the potential for colder temperatures and frost by
then. Inserted patchy frost into the fcst for late Friday
night across the north.

No real signal for a 3 day period of much needed dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions continue to prevail ahead of a cold front
approaching from the north. TSRA just ahead of the cold frontal
passage will bring some potential for strong to severe storms
and brief restrictions this evening. There is still some
uncertainty on where storms will form given the relatively dry
air in place.

Hi-res guidance has outlined UNV/JST/AOO as the most likely
airfields to experience TSRA, with MDT/LNS potentially
experiencing SHRA late this evening. The most uncertainty lies
at IPT, where SHRA seems the most likely outcome at this time.
Any restrictions will likely remain above IFR thresholds,
although a brief drop in vsby/cigs towards high-end IFR
thresholds cannot be ruled out.

Breezy-to-gusty winds will continue this afternoon before
decreasing overnight after the cold frontal passage. LLWS
remains possible along the Alleghenies (JST/AOO/UNV) between
00Z-06Z Monday before becoming less of a factor later in the
overnight period.

Outlook...
Mon-Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Fri...SHRA/PM TSRA with brief restrictions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Martin/NPB
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB