Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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971
FXUS65 KCYS 271919
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
119 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS SOME WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION...SO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA IN
THE AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WITH LOW AND MID LEVELS SATURATING AND DECENT
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED...WILL PAINT 60 TO 100 PERCENT POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG OUR SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY
DAWN WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW PROGGED
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH THE BEST QG FORCING IN THE 500-300 MB
AND 700-500 MB LAYERS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO...IF THE LOW TRACKS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...WE
WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES FROM THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SNOWY
RANGE...LARAMIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING CHEYENNE. THANK YOU TO WPC SNOWFALL FORECAST AND OUR LOCAL
EXPECTATIONS...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY AND LARAMIE COUNTY
INCLUDING CHEYENNE.

FRIDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH OVERALL QPF FOR THE NECESSITY
OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TOO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH EXPECTED SNOW
AND CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA. 700MB TEMPERATURES STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE PANHANDLE AROUND
FREEZING...SO PRECIP OUT THERE SHOULD BE SNOW AS WELL.

UPPER LOW TAKES ITS SWEET TIME MOVING THROUGH OUT AREA. IN
FACT...SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE RIGHT
ALONG THE BORDER OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
SO UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

WE FINALLY START TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA. STARTED TO DRY OUT THE
FORECAST AFTER MONDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM...CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT WED APR 27 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET.
ATTENTION TURNING TO THE PANHANDLE AND AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE FOR TONIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW AND A WET LOW LEVEL SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-112-114>119.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ019>021-054-055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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