Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 292026
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
226 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAST MOVING SYSTEM
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO. LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. DID GET A REPORT OF A FUNNEL CLOUD
WITH THE STORM...THOUGH NOT REALLY SEEING ANY ROTATION ON THE
RADAR. PHOTO RECEIVED DID INDEED SHOW A WEAK FUNNEL...BUT NOTHING
REALLY TO GET WORRIED ABOUT AS THE FUNNEL QUICKLY DISSIPATED. SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWFA BY 00Z.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LACK OF SURFACE HEATING.
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE FOR TUESDAY AS A WELL ADVERTISED BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST. MAYBE A TAD
COOLER ON TEMPERATURES AS 700MB TEMPERATURES FALL 2-3 DEGREES C
OVER TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. UPSLOPING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
AID IN CONVECTIVE BUILDUP ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. NOT TOO
CONCERNED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FORECAST CAPE AROUND 800
J/KG...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLOSER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A GENERALLY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WITH THE UPPER HIGH MEANDERING OVER THE SW CONUS. A FEW IMPULSES
WILL COME OFF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND DROP SE ACROSS THE
REGION IN THIS FLOW PATTERN BRING PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT OF LATE DAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH SOMEWHAT HARD TO TIME WHEN THE
LARGER COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON THURSDAY
AND IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS WITH
700MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 20C ON SATURDAY. A COOL FRONT LOOKS
TO PASS ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR EXPECTED OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH LACK OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WE BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH GREEN FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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