Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 272052
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
252 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TOMORROW CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND WINDY WHICH WILL PRODUCE
A SITUATION WHERE GRASS FIRES CAN SPREAD VERY RAPIDLY. WESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS TO THE EAST WITH
GUSTS MORE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES TOMORROW
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES.

QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER
FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER COME SUNDAY BUT THAT WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.





.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT
THEN SHOW DIVERGING SOLUTIONS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WELL AHEAD OF
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE MOST
COMMON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FIRE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS
THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE
INITIAL TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO DO TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH MAYBE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND WELL NORTH OF I80 THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BORA-LIKE EVENT SETS
UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CONTINUED TO INCREASE WINDS AROUND 20
TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MAY NEED TO GO ANOTHER 5 TO 10
KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SINCE GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE AREA AND STRONG WINDS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY FOR FIRE WEATHER.

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE...BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO WYOMING ON THURSDAY. GFS SOLUTION IS COOL BUT
RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY DAYTIME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTH TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO -15C. AFTER LOOKING AT THE
ENSEMBLES...THIS ECMWF RUN IS THE OUTLIER. PREFERRED A CONSENSUS
BLEND TRENDING TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. INCREASED POP...BUT KEPT
THEM BETWEEN 20 TO 40 PERCENT...HIGHEST IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD AS A BROKEN CLOUD DECK
AROUND 10K FEET EARLY GRADUALLY LIFTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY THROUGH 00Z TODAY WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS LIKELY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015 CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
30 AND 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE INTERSTATE
25 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER WINDS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS
ARE NEAR ZERO.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WYZ301-310.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ311>313.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...SML


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