Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 260524
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST OFF OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO SOME LLVL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS I80...
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND PINE BLUFFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.

MODELS INDICATE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION FOR LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
COOL...BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THIS AREA. MODELS SHOW
A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS ALONG WITH SOME
JET ENERGY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS
TO ALLIANCE LINE. KEPT POP BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT
TIMES. THURSDAY WILL BE WINDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
ESPECIALLY WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30
MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TO
CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO
WYOMING AND COLORADO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPERS
60S ARE EXPECTED...WARMEST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A FEW
AREAS REACHING 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
DURING THE DAY...BUT STILL EXPECTED LESS WIND COMPARED TO THURSDAY
AS THE LOW TO MIDLEVEL GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. KEPT POP BELOW 5
PERCENT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM MDT
WED MAR 25 2015

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WARM
AND DRY. WILL START OFF THE WEEKEND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD 70S WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORDS AS
SUNNY SKIES AND DRY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS ADD TO THE WARMING
POTENTIAL.

A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONTANA LATE SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DO
NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT
A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH FROPA.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL MAKE A PUSH INTO COLORADO MONDAY AND
MAY HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD THE ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION
OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN AT THAT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH MID WEEK AND AGAIN VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS
FEW-SCT IFR STRATUS AT TIMES AT KCYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DISSIPATE THIS AREA OF
CLOUD HANGING ONTO THE LARAMIE RANGE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
COMMON ACROSS THE AREA LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED
CONCERNS EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND. A COOL AND DRY PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN
THE THE REGION BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...TJT


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