Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 132158
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
358 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CONVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STRONGER
STORMS WITH MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS BEING EAST OF THE MTNS INTO
THIS EVENING. ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
LOCALIZED. SOME HAIL THREAT STILL THERE AS WELL THOUGH UPPER
SUPPORT NOT ALL THAT GREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
THOUGH SOME MAY HANG ON OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS SFC UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
A WEAK SFC FRONT THAT WILL PASS ACROSS DURING THE DAY ALLOWS FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. INSTABILITY NOT PROGGED TO BE AS
GREAT THOUGH SO ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE.
TEMPS JUST A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY WILL DIE OUT
SAT EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
SUNDAY WITH SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE
AREA EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL DISTURBANCES
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SASKATCHEWAN THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL
TEND TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE CYS AND LAR TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS
REMAINING NON-CRITICAL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOST
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED
NEXT WEEK. DRY LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC FIRE
WEATHER...RUBIN





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