Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 211705 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1105 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.UPDATE...for Fire Weather Red Flag Warning issuance rest of
today parts of SE Wyoming.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Today...Near perfect day to end the work week as a ridge aloft moves
overhead and our airmass continues to moderate with mostly sunny
skies. Guidance high temperatures between NAM and GFS MOS are close
and look on track.

Tonight...Flow aloft becomes more zonal, west to east, and decent
low level winds or mixing, will make for a relatively tranquil, mild

Saturday...Our airmass continues to moderate and warm as zonal flow
aloft prevails and downslope warming and 700 mb temperatures near 7
Celsius continue to make for a warm day. Again, guidance
temperatures are close and accepted.

Saturday night...Even more mild than Friday night as our airmass
continues to moderate.

Sunday...Cooler day on tap east of I-25 as surface high pressure
across the Central Plains states produces upslope southeast winds.
Temperatures remain about the same compared to Saturday, west of
I-25. Continued dry with quite minimal low and mid level moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The upper level ridge will shift to the east of our forecast
area Sunday night and Monday, deamplifying somewhat on Tuesday as
a series of shortwaves move across the Rockies and into the
central Plains. With the train of shortwaves will come increasing
chances for rain and high elevation snow showers for our counties
Monday into Tuesday. The bulk of the precip will remain over the
higher terrain and nearby lower elevations, but can see a few
showers making it into the WY/NE plains as well based on the
vigorous nature of the shortwaves and moisture progs. In
addition, the passage of these waves within deep westerly flow
will maintain breezy westerly winds at the surface through the
extended period, especially along and west of the Laramie Range.
The upper ridge will then build back over the western CONUS
midweek bringing a return of dry and mild conditions. Breezy
conditions will continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR over all terminals during the period with some high clouds
moving across the region.  Some gusty winds mainly early this
afternoon over the southeast Wy terminals.


Issued at 1051 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Made a quick update to bump up winds for fire weather zone 309 and
the western part of zone 310 into the mid afternoon hours where
low rh around 15 percent and winds 20 to 30 mph will coincide.
Given the observational trends next few hours, issued a Red Flag
Warning for those zones that include areas along and east of the
southern Laramie Range in southeast Wyoming. Fire Weather Watch
continues for tomorrow for areas along and east of the southern
Laramie Range to include our western Nebraska Panhandle counties
where we will see increased winds tomorrow and low RH.


WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for WYZ301-309-310.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ309-310.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NEZ311>313.



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