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000
FXUS65 KCYS 170421
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1021 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

RADAR SHOWS THE STORM ACROSS PLATTE COUNTY WEAKENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. THE HRRR
MODEL INDICATES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS APPROACHING CONVERSE
AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

BATCH OF MOISTURE NOW SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. AIRMASS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA HAS DRIED THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL MORE LIMITED
THOUGH ONE CELL APPROACHING NORTHEAST DAWES COUNTY ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING AS SOME ACTIVITY STILL
EXPECTED.

NO BIG CHANGES SEEN FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS CWA RESIDES
INITIALLY JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. WEAK IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MONDAY THOUGH UPPER
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AS A PUSH OF COOLER AIR DROPS DOWN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TUE NIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ALONG WY/NE BORDER
WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. SFC TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
REMAIN ALONG NE/WY BORDER WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG
THETA-E RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THREAT OF CONVECTION AND
INSTABILITY AXIS BETWEEN CYS AND BFF. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE WED AND THU AS UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW MOVES LITTLE.
ON FRIDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
CWA AND WILL MOVE CONVECTION CHANCES INTO PANHANDLE WITH
DRYING IN WY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH
SURFACE HEATED AND ELEVATED TERRAIN IN WY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FRIDAY WARMEST. SLA

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE CWA
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME ISOLD CONVECTION MOVING
OFF LARAMIE RANGE AND SNOWIES. NEXT FEW HOURS. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF
TSTMS. SFC WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC DUE TO CONVECTION AROUND AREA
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MAIN CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE VERY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES OVER FAR WESTERN DISTRICTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
ONLY FAIR RECOVERIES AT NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
FUELS. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS HOWEVER. OTHERWISE LITTLE
CHANGE SEEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...SLA
FIRE WEATHER...RE