Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 180639
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1239 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FLATTENS IT. VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY AS A COOL SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.

SUNDAY...CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH RIDGING ALOFT
OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...EVEN WARMER AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES TO OUR EAST WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AIDING WARMING...THOUGH SOUTH LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL MITIGATE AND MINIMIZE WARMING SOMEWHAT.

TUESDAY...SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS OVER THE SNOWY
AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION AND WITH ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE
TROUGH...WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A MINIMAL
IMPACT EVENT.

THURSDAY...DRY AND WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND
ESPECIALLY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING DUE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY...CONTINUED DRY AND MILD WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DOMINANT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MAINLY
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE





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