Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 131053
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
453 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SNOW FALLING AS EXPECTED RIGHT ON TIME. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER WRN NEVADA AT
THIS TIME. THE WAVE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND APPEARS TO BE
DIGGING A TAD BIT MORE SOUTH. THE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA IS
FOR A GLANCING SHOT OF THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WHICH WILL
MEANS SLIGHTLY LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS. BOTH THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM AND
GFS RUNS HAVE TRENDED LESS WITH QPF AMOUNTS WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE SMALL SHIFT IN THE STORM TRACK.

GENERALLY LEFT HEADLINES AS THEY WERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO PUT
CHEYENNE AND LARAMIE INTO A SNOW ADVISORY WITH LESS SNOW EXPECTED.
CHEYENNE WILL LIKELY HAVE 2 TO 3 INCHES ON THE GROUND BY SUNRISE
BUT ACCUMULATIONS THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY
WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 3 EXPECTED. HIGH SUN ANGLE WILL ALSO MAKE IT
REALLY TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE SNOW WITHOUT HIGH SNOW RATES...ESPECIALLY
ON ROAD SURFACES. SHOULD SEE A LOT OF SNOW MELT OFF THE ROADS AS
EVEN WHERE SNOW IS FALLING LIGHTLY. SUN ANGLE TODAY IS THE SAME AS
THE END OF AUGUST.

CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WARNING FOR AN ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT DOUGLAS HAD 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND
AT 2 AM AND RIVERTON WFO KEPT THERE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.
MAY BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE LATER THIS MORNING BUT IT WOULD BE NICE
TO KNOW HOW MUCH SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN FIRST.

SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD GET A BIT
CHILLY WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND AND SKIES CLEAR. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THEN DRY
TUESDAY BUT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN WNW FLOW LOFT. THESE WILL BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE MTNS WITH SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. A PUSH OF COLDER CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA WEDS AND HOLD AGAINST THE MTNS THROUGH THURSDAY THUS COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS FOR THOSE TWO DAYS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
ACROSS FRIDAY LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED 315 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AERODROMES FOR TODAY WITH
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SNOW BY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVER MOST AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DRYING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DRY AND COOL MONDAY THEN A BIT
WARMER TUESDAY BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.


&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ101-103>107-110-114-116-117.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ102-108-112-115-118-119.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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