Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 290518
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING.  WITH THE DEEP MIXING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-
35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  THE RED FLAG
WARNINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING LOOK ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DECREASES. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
PW VALUES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE (0.25-0.50 INCHES). ALTHOUGH
MIN RH WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...THE WINDS
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER CWA WIDE...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER BY WED AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS OF COLORADO.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS FORECASTED FOR THURS ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE DEEPEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHUNTED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC...COULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MOVE
EASTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONGER WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SNEAK SOUTH ACROSS
THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EAST AND
OUT OF OUR COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
STORM IN THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR WITH PERHAPS A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH IN THE LATE MORNING
AS WINDS ALOFT VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS AND WILL COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR
MONDAY AS WELL AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. SO COULD
SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF THE CAP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH RESSURE OVER THE AREA. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN TO 12-15 PERCENT OVER AREAS TO
THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH 7 PM. IT
WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THUS THERE
ARE MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



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