Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 082215
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
315 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPS AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.  THERE IS ENOUGH LLVL MIXING
COMBINED WITH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC OF 30-40 KTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH VEDAUWOO
AND PUMPKIN VINE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.  NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
GET MUCH STRONGER THAN THIS WITH WINDS ALOFT NOT CHANGING MUCH
THROUGH THE EVENING.  TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH WED WITH
700 MB TEMPS RISING FROM -4C THIS AFTN THROUGH 2C ON WED.  THIS
MEANS THAT HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NEAR THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  700MB WIND DO DECREASE AROUND 10 KTS ON TUES AND
THEN FURTHER ON WED...MEANING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS THE 850 MB
CAG-CPR GRADIENT STAYS BELOW 50 METERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS. NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIKELY PROMOTING A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH THE GFS/ECM SHOW
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA ON SAT OR
SUN...BUT THE MODELS DIFFER WITH TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A
FROPA AROUND 06Z SUN AND THE GFS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 00Z MON. THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...BUT WE MAY HAVE A MARGINAL HIGH WIND
EVENT IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE. LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THAT SYSTEM...BUT WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WARM WITH 700 HPA TEMPS IN THE 0 TO +5 DEG C RANGE THRU MOST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
SCT TO BKN COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST WYO
TERMINALS WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO A
SURFACE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


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