Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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125
FXUS65 KCYS 241136
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
536 AM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Today/tonight...Storm Prediction Center marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening looks on track based on
progged shear and instability parameters. Shortwave moves across our
counties this afternoon with a theta-e ridge axis over our eastern
counties. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon, mainly along and east of I-25, with a few strong to
severe storms based on shear and instability.  NAM and GFS MOS high
temperatures look on track and have compromised between them. Storms
expected to mostly end in the evening with loss of daytime heating
and shortwave lift.

Saturday/Saturday night...Relatively strong Pacific origin cold
front passes early Saturday ushering in a cooler and more stable
airmass, thus no showers and thunderstorms anticipated for Saturday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures some 8 to 15 degrees cooler than
today and have again compromised between NAM and GFS MOS high
temperatures.

Sunday...Slow warming trend begins as heights and thicknesses rise.
Still looks like a dry day with limited low and mid level moisture
as fuel for thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Frontal boundary to continue over the area with easterly winds
over the Panhandle and southwesterly winds down near the
Wyoming/Colorado border. GFS continues to show increasing
dewpoints moving into the southern Panhandle Monday afternoon with
1500 J/KG CAPE. Will need to be on the lookout for severe
thunderstorms across the Panhandle Monday afternoon.

Perhaps a more widespread severe thunderstorm event looking to
take shape Tuesday as GFS dewpoints in the Panhandle near 60F with
good Gulf moisture tap well in place. 50+ kts of shear across the
Panhandle Tuesday afternoon so we could be looking at a few
tornadoes as well.

Boundary does not move through the week, meandering east into the
Panhandle and then back to the east slopes of the Laramie Range
through the end of the week. Will be dealing with convection on a
daily afternoon and evening basis just about every day of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 532 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon and continue this evening producing wind gusts in
excess of 40 knots and localized MVFR, otherwise VFR prevails.
Cold frontal passage occurs tonight with winds becoming northwest
after passage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Cold front still on track to move into the northern Nebraska Panhandle
and east central Wyoming through the afternoon hours today. Ahead of this
front, westerly winds will become quite strong. Very warm temperatures
expected today with mid 90s expected in southeast Wyoming and near 100
in the Nebraska Panhandle. Afternoon humidities will become quite low
across the area ahead of the front. Some humidity recovery behind the front
for the Panhandle and extreme southeast Wyoming, but Converse, Albany
and Carbon Counties expected to see poor overnight recoveries. More
widespread winds for Saturday with afternoon humidities becoming critical
for much of the area.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ301.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for WYZ301.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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