Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 100451
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
951 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

IT IS ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS
TO 30-40 MPH.  WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA.  THIS
PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THURS.  THE MODELS DO
SHOW PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 06-12Z
TONIGHT.  THE LLVL GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES TO 50-60 METERS...THUS
WINDS WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH MARGINAL GRADIENTS AND A LACK OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT...DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT HIGH WINDS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER DID INCLUDE
GUSTS TO 55 MPH IN THE HWO FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS. THE GRADIENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE BY MIDDAY WED AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SOME AT THAT POINT. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER ON THURS AS
THE STRONGEST 700 MB FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR FEB WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY MILD
AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND H7 TEMPS IN
THE 0 TO +3 DEG C RANGE. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER SOMETIME LATE SAT
NIGHT OR SUN MORNING. THE GFS SHOWS H75 FLOW INCREASING TO 45 TO 55
KTS OVER THE WIND CORRIDORS AS LOW-LEVEL GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HIGH WIND EPISODE FOR ARL/BRX AND POSSIBLY
THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST FORCING GOING TO THE NORTH...BUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LVL
RIDGING RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
LIKELY. NO BIG WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING FOR
OUR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AIRPORTS THAT WILL SPREAD OUT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEK. BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 50S BY MIDWEEK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF


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