Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 200740
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
140 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

TODAY...ANOTHER HOT AND MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR
COUNTIES. DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. 24 HOUR CHANGE
CHART SHOWS TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RUNNING SOME 2 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE 24
HOURS AGO WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS VIA DEWPOINTS.

TONIGHT...AFTER ISOLATED EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH...ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

MONDAY...RIDGING AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND WITH MORE LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...LESS
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT...THOUGH WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING ALOFT EVEN MORE AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF RUN SHOWS 597DM HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE
WITH A 600DM 500MB HIGH OVER COLORADO. 700MB TEMPERATURES PUSHING
18C ACROSS CARBON COUNTY...SO TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE VERY
WARM. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OUT IN THE
PANHANDLE/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL TO 594DM AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK SOME TO +14 TO +16C. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DO BEGIN TO POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...SO KEPT SOME LOW END CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS MONTANA FRIDAY AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS GFS 700MB WINDS OF 30-35KTS. SOME
RELIEF THOUGH ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS GFS 700MB TEMPERATURES
FALL TO +10 TO +12C FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST THURSDAY AND WEST WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY/INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING
WITH FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS AS AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 301...302 AND 306 BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...AND PROGGED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAY SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY THROUGH HUMIDITIES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WYZ301-302-306.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN





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