000
FXUS65 KCYS 130213
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
813 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

EXPANDED THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE REST OF THE
SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. LAPS
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY (100-300 J/KG OF
CAPE)...HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH COOLING AND INCREASED STABILITY.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CUMULUS
FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. COULD STILL GET A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THIS AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SO
WILL HOLD ON TO LOW POPS IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND PUSH A SFC BOUNDARY
WEST AND AGAINST THE MTNS. MAY SEE SOME STRATUS FORM OVER THE
PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ARRIVES OTHERWISE
FEATURE WILL BE DRY. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF IMPULSES RIDING ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS
FLOW. ONE LOOKS TO EJECT ACROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA SHOULD SET OFF WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SE WY MTNS...SPREADING EAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK PACIFIC
FRONT WILL THEN PASS EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK UP OUT OF COLORADO
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INTO PANHANDLE FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON SATURDAY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BUILDING
RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO WY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE NORTH. JET
ENERGY ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH COMBINED WITH STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN CWA WILL KEEP SOME UPSLOPE E TO SE FLOW
UP TO LARAMIE RANGE. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS
TEND TO SHIFT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS EAST TOWARD LARAMIE
RANGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR BETTER CONVECTION CHANCE BACK EAST TOWARD
CYS. ON TUE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONGER SW FLOW
AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INFLUENCE OF SW
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

VFR WITH WINDS EASING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN AFTER NOON TIME WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 TO
30KTS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE PANHANDLE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART...ALL AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT WED JUN 12 2013

NO CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH FUELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON-CRITICAL. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAINLY OVER CARBON COUNTY AT
TIMES DURING THE PERIOD HOWEVER.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SLA
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB