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000
FXUS63 KDDC 161900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air and strong winds on Thursday

- Another reinforcing shot of cold air this weekend could lead
  to parts of southwest Kansas dropping to 32 degrees or colder
  for Sunday morning

- Precipitation chances look minimal for the next several days

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

18z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a surging area
of stronger winds and developing blowing dust from Scott City to
Elkhart and this band of stronger winds could lead to high wind
criteria later this afternoon for the counties in the high winds
warning. The departing surface and 500 mb low is located in
northeast Nebraska.

Tonight as the storm system continues to progress north and east
into Minnesota we should see the winds start to relax after
sunset as an area of high pressure builds in the Texas
panhandle. Winds should subside to 5-15 mph by midnight.
Otherwise with subsidence in the upper levels we should see
clearing skies and lows in the lower to mid 40s.

Wednesday should have little to no impactful weather. Winds will
sturn to the south to southwest with a lee side surface low
developing in eastern Colorado during the afternoon with a
passing shortwave in the Rockies. 850 mb temps will warm to
21-22 (C) with sunny skies through the day and highs will reach
into the lower to mid 80s.

Wednesday night momentum from an upper level trough in the
northern plains will push the surface low eastward and a strong
cold front will race through southwest Kansas late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A tight postfrontal pressure
gradient is indicating we will have gusty winds nearing sunrise
Thursday morning with the 12Z HRRR 48 hour forecast showing
20-30 kt sustained with pockets of 40-50 kt gusts. The stronger
cold air advection should hold off until the during the day on
Thursday so lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Models remain consistent showing a strong cold front passage
Thursday morning, accompanied by strong north winds. NBM wind
grids were realistic, 20-30 mph sustained with gusts of 40-45
mph during the early hours of Thursday. Cold advection Thursday
morning is forecast to be significant, and Thursday will be
dramatically cooler, with afternoon temperatures struggling
through the 50s at many locations. NBM holds onto some chance
pops for light rain along I-70 with this accompanying shortwave,
but feel this is overdone, with most rain remaining northeast of
SW KS. Probability of any measurable rain for the northeast
counties remains limited to 10-20%. Cool surface high pressure
will be in control across the northern and central plains
through Friday, with an easterly wind component across SW KS.
This upslope flow and considerable cloud cover will work to keep
temperatures about 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

A strong secondary surge of colder air remains forecast for
Saturday. 00z ECMWF and its EPS ensemble members remain
consistent forecasting 850 mb temperatures ranging from -2C
north to +2C south through Saturday afternoon. NBM`s chance
category pops for light rain were retained for this frontal
passage, but feel a stratus/drizzle scenario is the most likely
outcome Saturday. The combination of stratus, drizzle and
northeast winds will work to keep Saturday afternoon unseasonably
chilly, struggling to get into the lower 50s. NBM may not be
cool enough for this anomalous airmass Saturday, with 00z EPS
probability of temperatures > 50 only 20-40% across northwest
zones. Northern zones may easily stay in the 40s Saturday.

During this upcoming cool regime, each morning Friday through
Sunday will offer chilly sunrise temperatures in the 30s. A
light freeze near 32 is probable at some of the colder northwest
locations each night. But in general, cloud cover is expected to
work against radiational cooling, and prevent damaging freezes.
The coldest morning and the best potential for a light freeze is
expected to be Sunday morning, with the 1030 mb high in vicinity
of SW KS. Another warming trend is expected Sunday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time pd. Winds
will be very strong through the afternoon with blowing dust
reducing surface visibilities to 1 to 2 SM for DDC, GCK, and LBL.
Wind speeds will be at 20-30 kts with gusts as high as 50 kts
for all the terminals through 00Z. Winds should diminish after
00Z and speeds will be generally 7-12 kts through 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Intense northwest winds are expected to begin about 10 am
Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected from 10 am through
3 pm. Wind gusts of 40-50 will be common, with gusts as high as
60 mph across northwest zones. With slightly cooler air, minimum
relative humidity is expected to remain above red flag criteria,
at 20-30%. As such, no red flag warnings are planned. Still,
wildfire risk will clearly be elevated Tuesday, given an
abundance of dry dormant fuels and the intense northwest winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ043-044-061>063-074-084.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ075>078-
085>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Turner