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000
FXUS63 KDDC 132330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm day on Sunday with near record high potential for Dodge
  City.

- Severe event on Monday is still on track to be more of an
  evening/overnight event.

- Potential high wind warning criteria winds on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

18Z obs and RAP upper air analysis shows a large 538 dm closed
low centered of the northern California coast with a mainly
zonal subtropical jet in the central and southern plains and a
weak shortwave moving through northwest Kansas. At the surface
1006 mb low is located in southwest Nebraska and a trough
extends through western Kansas into Oklahoma which is leading
to southwest winds and relative humidity values in the 10-20%
range.

Throughout tonight the surface low will slowly move eastward
into southeast Nebraska but with little upper air divergence
with the short wave we shouldn`t see much deepening of the low.
The trough/windshift line should bisect southwest Kansas from
Hays to Liberal by sunrise and winds in the boundary layer
should switch to the north. 850 mb temperatures will stay warm
through the night at 20-22 (C) so lows will only fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

On Sunday as the upper low in the Pacific coast moves ashore the
jet stream ahead of it should ridge in the central plains
leading to mainly sunny skies through the day. Winds in the
morning will start east to northeast and then switch to the
southeast by late in the day. 850 mb temperature trends in the
short term models suggest we shouldn`t see much cooling and by
late in the day with diurnal heating we should see widespread
24-26 (C) temperatures. With relative humidity values falling to
around 10% we should have enough efficient heating to overcome
the light east winds and highs will reach into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The record for Dodge City is 92 and we could
certainly make a run at tying that record.

Sunday night the approaching storm system will be located just
west of the four corners region and the jet streak will be
entering into southern Colorado. Winds in the boundary layer
will start to turn southeasterly and gulf moisture will stream
into central Oklahoma and Kansas through the night which could
lead to a deck of stratus clouds moving in by morning. The
highest moisture in the east will keep the temperatures up
through the night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Out
west with lesser moisture temperatures will cool into the upper
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Latest medium range ensembles are continuing to show a powerful
upper level storm system affecting the central plains from
Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. The upper level low
track has been staying consistently through southern Colorado
into northwest Kansas with the upper level jet extending from
central New Mexico to northeast Kansas.

Both EPS and GEFS ensembles agree with the slower progression of
the upper low most of the prime severe weather setup will likely
be after 7pm in southwest Kansas and perhaps as late as 10 pm
before initiation of convection starts. Through the day as the
surface low in northeast Colorado deepens to 992 mb a dryline
will extend roughly along the highway 283 corridor and with
strong southwest winds and humidity values falling below 15% we
will likely (>90%) have red flag criteria from highway 283 to
the Colorado border for Monday afternoon. With the nose of the
jet moving into northwest Kansas by 00Z the surface low will be
in northwest Kansas and the eastward progression of the dryline
will make it to the highway 183 corridor.

After 7pm is when the low level jet increases to 35-50 kts from
highway 283 on east and we should see southeast winds at the
surface bring the moisture back to potentially as far west as
highway 83 as the deterministic Euro and EPS have both been
trending towards. At around 10pm the strongest nose of the 500
mb jet enters into southwest Kansas and this is where the
strongest lift should arrive along the dryline. Hodograph
soundings show good veering with height which would support
large to giant hail with any storm development and the storm
motion being almost parallel to the dryline would suggest quick
upscale growth and the formation of a squall line roughly along
and east of highway 283. Hail, wind, and tornadoes are going to
be in play with these storms.

Tuesday is showing the threat of strong surface winds and
blowing dust. As the surface to 500 mb low moves into southern
Nebraska EPS MSLP of the low falls to 989 mb and we should have
at least a 10 mb pressure gradient in southwest Kansas. EPS and
GEFS do have some wind gusts approaching 60 mph along the
Colorado border and the NBMv4.1 guidance loaded sustained 35 kt
winds with gusts to 50 kts. This is fairly aggressive for the
nationally blended model to put in winds that high and I see no
reason at this time to doubt it.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites
throughout the period. Light southwesterly winds through late
evening are expected to turn northwesterly 5 to 15kt generally
after 06-09Z as a weak surface trough axis pushes eastward
through western Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079-084>087.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...JJohnson