Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Mar 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3615 (S13W35,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) began to exhibit decay and separation in and in
between its intermediate and trailing spots. AR 3615 continued to be
responsible for the majority of the flare activity producing a M1.8
flare at 26/0036 UTC, which was the largest of the period. The remaining
active regions were stable and relatively quiet in comparison. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for an X-class flares
(R3/Strong), over 26-28 Mar due primarily to the flare potential of
Region 3615.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux peaked at 16 pfu at 25/1235 UTC, but
has since decreased to below the SWPC warning threshold of 10 pfu. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms will persist through 28
Mar primarily due to the potential and location of AR 3615. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels
through 27 Mar with a chance to reach high levels beginning on 28 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the
influence of a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 23 Mar.
Total field gradually weakened over the period decreasing from 7 to 2
nT, and the Bz component was mostly near neutral or northward. Solar
wind speeds decreased from ~775 km/s to lows near 550 km/s before
stabilizing around 640 km/s by the end of the period. Phi was
predominantly in a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements from the passing CME are likely to continue to weaken over
26 Mar and ambient solar wind conditions are expected to return on 27-28
Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an early, isolated
active period.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 26 Mar as CME influence
diminishes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return on 27-28
Mar.


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