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000
FNUS22 KWNS 111953
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further
west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in
guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the
lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico.
This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The
overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of
a Critical delineation at this time.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the
Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the
fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New
Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire
weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high
pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper
wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure
falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains,
resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds.

...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles...
Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds
across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level
trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined
with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should
maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH
values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with
localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the
potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is
confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the
past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels).
Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the
Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which
precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be
monitored).

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$