516
FNUS22 KWNS 031918
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

An Elevated risk area has been introduced for parts of southwest to
central New Mexico for Saturday afternoon. The general forecast
evolution outlined in the previous discussion remains on track,
though latest high-res ensemble guidance has shown a reasonably
strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southwest to central NM (the
probability for winds over 15 mph is generally 60%+ for most
locations). These conditions appear most probable during the 20-23
UTC period along ridge tops within the Gila region and along the
I-25 corridor. While the driest fuel conditions appear to be across
south-central NM, fuel analyses suggests ERCs over the region vary
between the 60-90th percentiles. These values are corroborated by
recent small wildfire activity, which suggests that fuels are
adequately dry to support fire weather concerns. Further west across
the southern Great Basin, strengthening winds combined with dry
conditions will support widespread elevated fire weather conditions.
However, fuel guidance suggests ERCs are near to below seasonal
values, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat.

..Moore.. 05/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough in West Texas will lift northeastward to near the
Red River Valley on Saturday. Farther north, a stronger upper-level
trough will also move northeast out of the central/northern Plains.
As this occurs, a cold front will push into part of the southern
High Plains. To the west of the cold front up against the southern
Rockies, parts of the Southwest will again be dry and breezy.
Similar to Friday, these conditions should generally be short-lived
and localized.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$