337
FXUS63 KEAX 281828
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
128 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms with heavy rain will affect the area overnight.
  Flooding/flash flooding will be the main hazards. Heaviest
  rainfall looks to be south of I-70

- Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Coverage looks
  more scattered in nature. Threat of severe weather also looks
  lower.

- Quiet weather expected Monday before more rounds of thunderstorms,
  potentially severe, affect the area Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today-Tonight: A deep upper-level trough will continue to slowly
lift to the northeast across NE/KS/NW MO/IA. With upper-level
ridging to our east, the area will be in the right-rear quadrant
of the upper jet. In the low and mid levels, we`ll see
persistent moist isentropic ascent across eastern KS and western
MO. The combination of low to mid-level ascent with upper-level
diffluence will help keep precipitation lingering through much
of the day. Even if precipitation dissipates, we should still
see cloud cover in this regime. All of this will limit the
recovery of the airmass over the area. As a result we`ll see
much less CAPE today than the previous couple of days. HREF
probabilities show high probabilities of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg
but little or no chance for SBCAPE over 2000 J/kg. So feel
confident we`ll see 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE by the afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will continue to be strong with 40-50 kts
likely. As the surface front moves through the area late this
afternoon to early this evening, storms should develop along/
ahead of it. Given the strong shear and modest instability, a
few severe storms look possible. Overall coverage looks
scattered and with the front advancing eastward, more
progressive.

Monday - Monday Night: A drier air mass will move into the area
Monday behind the cold front. This will allow a short reprieve in
the precipitation chances before the next system begins to affect
the region Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Tuesday - Late in the Week: The drier surface high that moved
through the area Monday will move into the Southeast by Tuesday
afternoon. A lee trough will deepen in the high Plains, in response
to the next system moving in from Intermountain West. This will
tighten the pressure gradient over the central and eastern
Plains and allow for southerly flow to develop. That will help
advect moisture back northward into the area in time for the
next shortwave trough to interact with it. With the moisture
returning to the area and temperatures warming into the 80s, it
looks like moderate instability will build, with potentially
2000-2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong westerly mid and upper-level
flow will result in deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts. Given this,
it looks like there is some potential for strong to severe
storms Tuesday afternoon/ evening. Unsettled weather will
continue through the end of the week as troughing deepens over
the western half of the CONUS. Persistent southerly flow will
allow moisture to stream northward into the area. It`s not until
the weekend when precipitation chances diminish as cooler and
drier air move into the middle of the country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to remain until the severe
potential during the afternoon hours. Some thunderstorms may be
possible this evening. Coverage is expected to be scattered, so
I went with vicinity thunderstorms for the TAFs. Some pockets
of reduced visibilities are possible with evening storms. VFR
conditions are expected to return later tonight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier