Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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845 FXUS64 KEPZ 100002 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 602 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 216 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Most of the forecast period will be warm, dry, and breezy. Some moisture moves in from the east Friday morning associated with a weak cold front. Additional moisture and stronger east winds on Saturday bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Rio Grande before dry air returns by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Quiet weather continues for the short term as a weak cold front filters in Friday morning from the southern High Plains. Impacts will be minimal through Friday with an uptick in surface moisture east of the Rio Grande tomorrow AM. Dew points only reach the 30s to low 40s which should not be enough to produce any precip on Friday. A second more potent surge of easterly winds arrives Fri night, pushing dew points into the 50s Sat AM across the lower RGV. Winds look to be quite strong for a backdoor front/pseudo- dryline, reaching 15-25 mph sustained with gusty west slope winds Fri night. How far and deep the moisture reaches is a big question with the NAM making it into AZ while the GFS and Euro get to the Divide. As daytime heating kicks in, westerly flow flushes out some of the moisture back east on Saturday. Otero and Hudspeth counties are projected to have enough moisture and lift from a nearby disturbance to spark a few showers and thunderstorms Sat PM. El Paso will be in the middle of the battle between the dry westerlies that develop in the afternoon out west and the cooler air to the east. Rain chances have been bumped up a bit for the metro area as low stratus hangs around for much of the day. Another dryline dance to the west is expected for Sat night before the moisture is flushed out for good on Sunday due to breezier west winds (20-25 mph) underneath the base of a passing upper trough. The dry air on the back end of the trough largely ends our rain chances for the rest of the period. Weak upper-level flow then takes over into the middle of next week, involving a minor upper ridge. There will be kinks in the flow which could induce a shower or storm over the mountains each afternoon but we should be mainly dry. Winds stay relatively light through the middle of next week. Temperatures remain near average through the period with a slight warm up early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions through the period with SKC-FEW250. Surface winds west 12-15G25 knots diminishing to west/northwest AOB 8 knots after 03Z. After 08Z in the east...winds changing to east/northeast 10-13G20 knots...as far west as the Continental Divide by end of period. Increasing SCT-BKN250 after 12Z. Additionally after 17Z...SCT-BKN080CU over the higher terrain of Otero and Hudspeth Counties. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 With relatively lighter winds expected through the period, fire weather concerns will be low to moderate. For Friday, modestly breezy east winds are expected behind a cold front with an increase in moisture east of the Rio Grande. This moisture boundary will struggle to make it to the Continental Divide, so western areas are expected to remain critically dry into the weekend with moderately breezy SW winds. The pseudo-dryline dances around into Sunday with a chance of showers and storms Saturday afternoon for eastern areas. Dry thunderstorms may be a threat as well Sat PM in the Sacs. Very breezy west winds (20-ft winds of 15 to 20 mph) develop on Sunday as an upper trough passes by, resulting in marginal red flag conditions and possible SPS issuance. RFTIs of 2-4 elevated to near critical are forecast for Sunday. Dry conditions are forecast for the first half of next week as temperatures warm up with moderate afternoon breezes and elevated fire weather. Min RHs range from 5-12% west of the Highway 54 corridor through Saturday, 10-35% east of 54; then 5-15% area-wide. Vent rates will be mostly excellent; good to very good in portions of FWZ 113 and 056 through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 60 89 63 89 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 56 80 58 84 / 0 10 40 50 Las Cruces 53 88 56 87 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 50 83 56 84 / 0 0 20 40 Cloudcroft 38 60 41 60 / 0 10 40 70 Truth or Consequences 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 45 76 48 76 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 47 86 51 86 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 46 85 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 86 61 87 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 49 81 56 82 / 0 0 30 50 Fort Hancock 54 89 59 92 / 0 0 30 40 Loma Linda 53 78 56 81 / 0 10 20 30 Fabens 55 89 60 90 / 0 0 20 30 Santa Teresa 51 85 56 86 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 58 85 62 85 / 0 0 20 30 Jornada Range 48 83 54 85 / 0 0 20 20 Hatch 46 86 51 86 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 52 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 52 83 59 84 / 0 10 30 30 Mayhill 41 67 45 69 / 0 10 30 60 Mescalero 41 70 45 70 / 0 10 30 70 Timberon 41 69 44 70 / 0 10 30 50 Winston 41 75 46 77 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 47 81 49 81 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 45 83 50 83 / 0 0 20 20 Lake Roberts 40 77 44 77 / 0 0 10 10 Hurley 41 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 45 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 79 49 79 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 47 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 80 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...17-Hefner