Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 281704 AAB
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1104 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Warming temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be the
theme through the weekend. Areas of blowing dust will be likely on
Friday and Sunday due to the elevated winds. The approaching
system that will bring these winds will bring moisture and
increased precipitation chances Sunday into Monday. Cooler
temperatures expected for the beginning of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages. Warming
temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be the name of the
game for the Borderland region through the weekend.

Upper level ridging will quickly build in from the west on Thursday.
This means quiet and dry weather conditions, along with warming
temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
middle to upper 70s across the desert lowlands, near 80 for El Paso
and vicinity.

Southwesterly flow aloft will return on Friday as the next storm
lurks off the coast of California. Pressure at the surface will
respond to increasing cyclonic curvature and positive vorticity
advection aloft with lee-side surface cyclogenesis formation over
the Front Range of southeast Colorado, with an accompanying surface
trough across New Mexico. This will promote breezy to windy
conditions on Friday and Saturday. NBM 75th percentile (verified
well over the past few weeks with recent wind storms)
probabilities are showing winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40
mph during the Friday afternoon/evening timeframe with a very
similar solution for Saturday. Winds as of now look to remain sub-
advisory. However, it will still be windy which could ultimately
promote blowing dust and the subsequent impacts from that.

As the storm system moves onshore during the Sunday timeframe, windy
conditions will remain in place across the region. The global
ensembles and their respected suites and deterministic solutions
remain bearish, so we will continue to watch this trend as we head
into the weekend. As of now, Wind Advisory headlines will likely be
needed for Sunday. Moisture and rain chances will also increase
during the Sunday-Monday timeframe as the system digs along
International Border of California/Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

High (90%+) confidence in VFR conditions across the Borderland
prevailing over the next 24 hours. As a ridge of high pressure
aloft flattens and moves eastward, high cloud coverage trends
upward to mainly SCT250. SW winds pick up and become gusty after
15-16Z on Friday, in response to lee troughing developing over SE
CO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to ELEVATED through the weekend
predominately for the desert lowlands of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas.

Fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end ELEVATED on Thursday.
Ridging with with slight southwesterly flow aloft will return to the
region. Min RHs will become Critical for all the desert lowlands and
Gila/Sacramento Mtn foothills Thursday afternoons. Elevations above
7000 feet will see Min RHs between 16-25 percent. Winds will be low-
end breezy out of the south/southwest at 7-15 mph.

For Friday, ELEVATED fire weather conditions return to the area.
Southwesterly flow in combination with strengthening lee-side
surface low formation over the Front Range of SE Colorado with lead
to increasing surface and low-level winds. As of now, confidence is
high that winds will be above Critical Thresholds on Friday. Min RH
values will be at Critical Thresholds as well, with values of 8-15
percent across the desert lowlands and Gila/Sacramento Mtn valleys
and foothills. Elevations above 6500-7000 feet will see Min RH
values of 15-20 percent and 20-30 percent for the highest
elevations. Given the sensible meteorological conditions
overlaying marginally receptive desert shrub/grass-like fuels,
ELEVATED to near- CRITICAL fire weather conditions will exist for
the desert lowlands. For the highest elevations, areas above
8000-9000 feet, fire weather conditions are LOW. Sensible
meteorological conditions, like gusty winds and decreasing Min RH
values will be present. However, given the state of larger fuels
like our Ponderosa Pine and Douglas/White fir, along with PJ and
woodland oak, fire weather conditions will be LOW to low-end
ELEVATED.

ELEVATED fire weather conditions will continue through the weekend
for the desert lowlands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  56  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            74  47  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               77  51  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               73  52  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               50  39  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    72  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              66  44  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   75  46  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                74  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       78  56  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                78  43  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             81  47  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               72  51  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   81  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             76  52  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           76  56  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            74  48  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    76  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 76  51  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                74  51  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  64  45  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  44  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 61  40  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  66  41  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                71  45  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                72  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             66  38  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   69  42  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    72  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               68  43  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  68  45  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   77  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  77  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           78  48  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               71  48  70  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99/ABQ


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