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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
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FNUS74 KEPZ 121232
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Tract 4 RX...BLM-ROSWELL
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
632 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure overhead, will shift east today. This will allow for warm,
dry, and breezy conditions this afternoon. This also means excellent
ventilation. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, while RH falls to
the lower teens. We continue this weekend with warm and dry conditions
and typical spring-season breezy afternoons which will trend fuels drier,
and make for elevated fire weather conditions. Monday the next Pacific
storm arrives. We stay dry and see significant increases in winds, as
RH drops into single-digits. Fire weather conditions will become critical.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) with some high clouds.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....75-79.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph increasing to 16 to 22
                    mph with gusts to around 35 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL in the late morning and early
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South around 21 mph in the late morning and
                    early afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........6         25        41        66
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        71        77        75
RH..............24        15        12        13
20 FT wind......S 5G8     SE 8G17   S 16G32   S 22G35
Mix hgt (ft)....M         11500     M         M
Transport wind..M         S 21      M         M
Haines index....5         M         5         M
Vrate kt-ft/1K..M         M         M         M
Ventrate Cat....M         M         M         M

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....44-47.
Max humidity........30-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 13 to 21 mph with gusts to around
                    36 mph shifting to the southwest around 10 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South around 26 mph becoming southwest around 8
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth in the evening and
                    overnight.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........51           M            6
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............74           M            M
RH..............13           M            M
20 FT wind......S 21G36      S 13G21      S 10G17
Mix hgt (ft)....10500        BLW100       M
Transport wind..S 26         SW 8         M
Haines index....5            M            4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..M            M            M
Ventrate Cat....M            M            M

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....72-75.
Min humidity........8-11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph increasing to around 23 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth in the morning and
                    early afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         M         2         M
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        59        71        74
RH..............28        21        10        9
20 FT wind......W 9G16    W 8G15    W 13G21   SW 15G25
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    BLW100    7500      M
Transport wind..W 8       W 8       W 23      M
Haines index....3         M         4         M
Vrate kt-ft/1K..M         M         M         M
Ventrate Cat....M         M         M         M

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Southwest winds 20-30 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Windy. Areas of blowing dust in the afternoon. Lows in
the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds 35-45 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Breezy. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. West
winds around 20-30 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Matthew Thomas
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410311.2/EPZ
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mdthomas@blm.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
