000
FNUS74 KEPZ 171437
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
837 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Similar albeit warmer conditions to yesterday are expected with
winds topping out around 10 MPH. Based on canyon orientation and
feedback about yesterday`s forecast, adjusted winds to more
southwesterly. Transport winds are listed as west below, but may
be more from the west-southwest. Later tonight, winds will
gradually reverse, becoming more drainage oriented from the north
or northeast. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear skies will be
expected with a few cirrus clouds with highs a few degrees above
normal. Very good venting is expected this afternoon.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 8 to 12 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 6 mph shifting to the west 10 to
                    17 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (85900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (116900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   1   1   1   3   3   3
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  64  66  69  70  72  72  72  73
RH..............23  17  16  13  13  12  12  12  11
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   8   8   8   12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  17  17  17  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9
Transp wind dir.N   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.6   10  10  10  10  17  17  17  17
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15  86  86  86  86  117 117 117 117
Ventrate Cat....PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 15 to 17 mph shifting to the north
                    around 14 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (102800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   5   1   1   1   3   3   3   5   5   5
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............71  68  63  58  57  56  55  55  54  52  51  51
RH..............11  12  15  19  21  21  23  23  24  25  26  26
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  12  12  10  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.24  24  24  18  18  18  17  17  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  17  15  15  15  15  14  14  14  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..103 103 103 103 7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6
Ventrate Cat....VGD VGD VGD VGD PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west
                    9 to 12 mph with gusts to around 24 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 19 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (73900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (117900
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........11  11  11  15  15  15  11  11  11  23  23  23
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  52  55  61  67  70  72  74  75  76  76  76
RH..............25  24  23  19  14  12  12  11  11  10  10  9
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   9   9   9   12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  15  15  15  17  17  17  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  12  12  12  12  12  12  12  19  19  19  19
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15  15  15  15  74  74  74  74  118 118 118 118
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  GD  GD  GD  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
West winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. South
winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...FEMO t
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.2/EPZ
.DELDT 04/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov