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000
FXUS62 KFFC 180553
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

In portions of far northwest Georgia, observations have begun to
indicate visibilities of 1/4 SM or less. With winds in this area
forecast to remain light (3 mph or less) and relative humidity
values forecast to range from 95-100%, dense fog is expected to
persist through the early morning hours. As a result, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for an area along and west of a line from
Paulding to Murray county, and will remain in effect until 10 AM
EDT.

King

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Zonal flow aloft will continue across the CWA through the period.
At the surface, generally high pressure will continue through
Thursday. A weak frontal boundary may try to sag southward across
far north GA Thursday night.

Regional radar shows a broad area of showers, with embedded
thunder, moving east across AL into far NW GA. The broken line
continues to weaken as it moves east. The hi-res models have a
decent handle on this system and continues and the line should
dissipate the further south it moves. Have spread pops a little
further south than the hi-res models, but overall there is no
major deviation. Mesoanalysis shows some pretty decent lapse rates
across NW portions of GA, but very little surface instability or
mixed layer CAPE. The cirrus/mid level canopy continues to fill
in, but any areas that see good heating could have isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Severe weather is not
anticipated, but cannot rule out a strong storm or two.

The models keep tomorrow fairly quiet with very little chance for
pops. However, there are some indications that a weakening MCS
may approach from the NW overnight Thursday. Have kept pops capped
at high end chance, but if there is run to run consistency with
the potential MCS, pops may have to be raised from 06Z - 12Z FRI.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The flow aloft is expected to transition from weak ridging to
quasi-zonal over the course of Friday through Sunday as a closed
low migrates eastward across southern Canada. Intermittent
perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow will bring influxes of
moisture and a source of lift Friday and Saturday, and on Sunday,
ensemble guidance depicts a southern-stream shortwave trough
passage. SBCAPE is progged to peak at 1000-1500 J/kg on Friday and
Saturday, and with bulk shear of 30-40 kts, there is potential
for isolated strong to severe storms with hail and damaging wind
gusts. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
storms on Friday across much of north Georgia with the primary
hazards being large hail and damaging wind gusts. On Sunday,
instability is progged to be less than the previous two days,
while bulk shear is expected to increase with the passage of the
aforementioned shortwave. Putting all these ingredients together,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
Friday through the weekend, primarily during the hours of daytime
heating. Not much has changed regarding the QPF, with rainfall
totals generally ranging from 0.5" to 0.8". The GEFS and EPS are
more bullish with rainfall totals while the CMCE is more
conservative, so opted for the NBM for QPF to capture the middle-
ground picture.

The larger-scale trough axis is progged to shift east of the
forecast area and off the East Coast Sunday through Monday,
driving a cold front through with high pressure in tow. PoPs will
decrease from west to east on Monday as a drier, cooler air mass
settles in. Across portions of north Georgia, Sunday morning lows
will be as cool as the mid/upper 40s and highs will be in the 50s.
Morning lows will be in the 40s and 50s across much of the
forecast area on Monday and highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend on Tuesday.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The line of SHRA/TSRA has dissipated as the outflow boundary has
moved southward into central Georgia. Dense fog has developed in
portions of northwest Georgia, but should stay north and west of
all TAF sites. Some scattered IFR clouds and visibility
restrictions of 4-5 SM may make it as far as FTY/RYY from 10-14Z
this morning. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected, with a mid-
level clouds between 080-100 lifting and dissipating this morning.
Winds will be fairly light through the period, from 3-6 kts. Winds
will be mainly NW this morning, shifting to SW by 17Z and through
the afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on low clouds and reduced visibilities this
morning at RYY/FTY.
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  85  61  83 /  20  40  10  30
Atlanta         66  84  62  80 /  30  50  10  30
Blairsville     60  77  55  75 /  40  70  10  20
Cartersville    63  82  58  77 /  40  60   0  20
Columbus        66  88  65  85 /   0  20   0  30
Gainesville     64  82  61  80 /  30  50   0  20
Macon           65  88  65  87 /   0  30  10  30
Rome            64  83  58  77 /  40  60  10  20
Peachtree City  64  86  61  82 /  20  40  10  30
Vidalia         66  90  68  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ001>005-
011-012-019-020-030-031-041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa/King
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...King