407
FXUS65 KFGZ 041031
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
331 AM MST Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds will continue to increase, peaking on Sunday,
and remaining gusty through much of the week. Isolated showers near
the Arizona-Utah state line on Sunday with most areas remaining dry.
Temperatures will cool slightly on Sunday but warm back up through
midweek. Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second
half of the week but conditions will remain dry.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions will continue for today as we enjoy the
warmth ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Southwest winds
will be gusty again this afternoon with gusts between 25-35 mph.

A deep upper level low will track towards the Pacific northwest and
dig southward into the Great Basin late tonight into Sunday. As the
low tracks into the Great Basin on Sunday, the pressure gradient
will really start to tighten up. This will result in strong, gusty
winds across the forecast area. Most areas will likely see gusts
between 40-50 mph, but some localized gusts up to 65 mph will be
possible, especially in areas downwind of the higher terrain. Some
of the guidance has trended slightly downward with the strength
of the winds but confidence is still high that we will see at
least advisory level winds occur. However, with uncertainty as to
how much coverage and the location of the highest winds, prefer
to leave the High Wind Watch as is for now.

As the low starts to cross to our north, we should also see an
increase in moisture. While the majority of the moisture from this
system will remain off to our north, there should be enough moisture
moving into our region to squeeze out some showers across the Kaibab
Plateau on Sunday and over the higher elevations of the Chuska
Mountains. The majority of ensemble members are consistent with
showing measurable precipitation over the Kaibab with a decent
number of them showing measurable over the Chuskas. Most areas will
remain dry as the low moves through and areas that do see some
precipitation will likely see less than 0.10". Temperatures take a
dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal.

With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the
potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely
areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop
below 15% during Sunday afternoon but with increasing moisture on
Sunday it may be more marginal. The limiting factor may be the fuels
but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. No changes to the
current Fire Weather Watch at this time.

As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better
conditions return as zonal flow sets up through the week. Winds will
remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging
around the region. Temperatures will moderate remaining near or just
below normal through the week as another trough may dip down from
the north. Conditions look to remain dry at this time for the rest
of the week but expect winds to continue to be gusty each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 04/12Z through Sunday 05/12Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with FEW clouds above 10,000 feet AGL.
Expect south-southwest winds 15-25 kts beginning ~16/17Z. Winds
remain elevated overnight as mid to upper-level clouds become BKN.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 05/12Z through Tuesday 07/12Z...Mainly VFR conditions
take place on Sunday with a few -SHRA north of I-40. Periods of MVFR
visibility due to blowing dust are highly likely at KINW-KSJN-KRQE
during the afternoon. Expect strong southwest winds sustained
25-35 kts with gusts of 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate
mechanical turbulence is likely during this time. Winds decrease
on Monday to 20-30 kts from the west while widespread VFR
conditions return.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry and mild conditions are
expected today with increasing southwest winds. Anticipate gusts of
20 to 35 mph for this afternoon. Then, a Pacific storm will result
in strong southwest winds on Sunday across northern Arizona. Expect
sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with peak gusts of 40 to 55 mph by
late morning. Locations prone to downsloping winds will likely see
gusts of up to 65 mph during this time. Minimum humidity for Sunday
afternoon is forecast to be in the 10 to 20% range across northeast
Arizona as the remainder of northern Arizona will be in the 25 to
30% range. Periods of critical fire weather conditions are likely
across northeast Arizona with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in
effect for locations near St. Johns in Apache County.

Monday through Wednesday...West-southwest winds remain elevated each
afternoon through Wednesday with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph.
Average temperatures will continue through the period with afternoon
humidity of 10 to 15% and overnight recoveries of 25 to 45%. No
precipitation is expected through next week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
AZZ004>017-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff