525
FXUS64 KFWD 162000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
/Through Friday afternoon/

The main story this afternoon will be the threat for severe
weather and flooding mainly across the Central Texas counties as
a cluster of storms continues to move south. Latest
satellite/radar imagery show multiple clusters moving across the
southern central counties where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect until 5 pm. The main threats will be large hail, damaging
winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally, periods of
heavy rainfall and/or training storms are expected resulting in
instances of flash flooding especially in low-lying areas and
near creeks and streams.

Behind this complex, light to moderate showers and storms will
continue to impact portions of North Texas with occasional
lightning strikes and pockets of heavy rain. Some of these storms
may contain small hail, but the atmosphere should be fairly
stable to limit this threat. Latest guidance show the bulk of the
precipitation should be east/south of our area by 6-7 pm, but a
few isolated/scattered storms may track across Central Texas and
along the Red River through midnight. Otherwise, cloudy conditions
are expected overnight with the potential for fog early Friday
morning. Light winds and abundant moisture should support at least
patchy fog across portions of the region.

One last round of scattered showers/storms are possible Friday
afternoon as the upper level trough finally progresses eastward.
Areas along the Red River will have the best potential (30-40%
PoPs) but areas as far south as the I-20 corridor could still see
some of this activity. Skies should slowly clear in the afternoon
with light northerly winds expected. Afternoon highs will stay in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low
responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night
as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our
east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will
likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning.
Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed
by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into
early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in
the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep
southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the
region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and
humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being
particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for
areas along and south of I-20.

The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a
cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or
evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another
factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on
Tuesday.

The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent
associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere
across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm
development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday.
Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet
another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third
shortwave moves east across the forecast area.

Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some
of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient
levels of instability (which will be in good supply each
afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing,
location, and the specific severe weather threats as better
resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either
way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some
relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Expect poor flying conditions to continue through Friday morning
due to isolated/scattered storms this afternoon and the return of
low ceilings/vsby late tonight. While most of the widespread
showers and storms have moved towards Central Texas, a few
isolated storms will continue through the afternoon with
occasional lightning. The rest of the evening should remain
fairly quiet, but MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities will
develop overnight given the abundant moisture and light and
variable winds expected. Conditions should improve by mid-morning
as skies begin to clear/scatter out. Otherwise, winds will remain
from the east/southeast through the evening before they become
light/variable tonight with northerly winds most of the day.

Sanchez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  81  66  89  69 /  50  20  10   0   0
Waco                65  82  65  87  69 /  50   5  10   5   0
Paris               63  79  63  85  65 /  60  50  20   5   0
Denton              62  80  62  88  66 /  50  30  10   0   0
McKinney            63  79  63  87  66 /  50  30  20   5   0
Dallas              65  82  66  89  69 /  40  20  10   5   0
Terrell             63  80  64  87  66 /  50  10  20   5   0
Corsicana           65  81  66  88  69 /  50  10  10   5   0
Temple              64  83  64  88  67 /  40   5  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       63  80  62  89  67 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ101>104-116>122-
130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$