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000
FXUS65 KGGW 182033
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
233 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Cool and breezy conditions will continue through Friday with
scattered snow showers at times.

2) Warmer weather looks to move into the area next week.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

NE Montana looks to sit on the southwest edge of an upper level
low pressure system tonight into Friday. This will lead to a
continuation of cool and breezy conditions and enough instability
for scattered snow showers at times. The Lake Wind Advisory for
Fort Peck Lake continues until 9 PM this evening, but conditions
may marginally support extension or re-issuance on Friday.
Surface high pressure will enter the picture Friday night allowing
for winds to diminish. A shallow ridge on Sunday ahead of an
approaching shortwave will then set up a warm up late this
weekend. Ensembles more broadly continue to support warmer
temperature solutions throughout the extended period.


CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Pops were trended higher for tonight into Friday above the base
NBM guidance in collaboration with neighbors. This has support
from area observations and radar trends and makes sense in the
near term with the instability present. While high confidence
exists on a warm up toward the end of the weekend, medium
confidence continues on the next into early next week. Unstable
conditions are expected but timing and placing any specific
precipitation chances will be a challenge at extended time scales.
Therefore, have opted to remain close to NBM at this time for the
long range.



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2030Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR to MVFR.

DISCUSSION: NE Montana will remain on the southwest side of an
upper level low pressure system, bringing MVFR stratus and reduced
visibilities in scattered snow showers at times through Friday.
WIND: NW winds will range from 20 to 30 kts, gusting to 40 kts
through 03z this evening before diminishing to 15 to 25 kts
tonight and Friday. Occasional gusts over 30 kts are forecast near
KSDY and KGDV on Friday afternoon closer to the departing low
pressure system.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow