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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251902
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
102 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather remains forecast for today
  (Thursday) with very large hail (1" - 3"+) and tornadoes
  (including the possibility of long-lived or significant
  tornadoes) as the main threats. The severe weather is forecast
  to impact the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
  There is a 10% chance that a cap or a different environmental
  factor will prevent severe weather.

- A Red Flag Warning remains in effect Thursday for Kit Carson,
  Cheyenne [CO], Wallace, and Greeley counties during the
  afternoon and early evening hours.

- Blowing dust chances have lowered, but could still see hazy
  skies and some degraded air quality this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Severe weather is expected across the Tri-State area this afternoon
into the overnight hours. The dryline looks to be setting up near I-
70 and Highway 27. Locations to the southwest of the line are drying
out as southerly winds will continue gusting above 25 MPH. Later
this afternoon, RH values behind the dryline will drop into the
lower teens. This will create critical fire weather conditions for
locations behind the dryline. A Red Flag Warning is still in effect
for the locations where prolonged critical fire weather conditions
are expected.

Blowing dust will also be possible (~15% chance) in locations along
and south of a line from Idalia, CO to Oakley, KS. Along the Kansas
Colorado border will see the best conditions for blowing dust.
Visibility reductions down to around 3 miles are possible in plumes
of blowing dust. Brown-out conditions cannot be ruled out near
source regions.

The dryline will be the trigger for the severe weather in the
evening. SPC has kept an Enhanced risk in the southeastern 1/3 CWA
for Thursday afternoon-night. This is based on a hatched/significant
hazard for 30% chance of hail and 10% chance of tornado. For this
event, the environment will be highly primed for tornado and hail
hazards. There is still a 10% chance that the cap will prevent any
storms from firing, but confidence is lowing due to clearing skies.
If the cap does break, isolated discrete to clusters of severe
storms will form and all hazards will be possible becoming a mess of
storms later on. The main hazards will be tornadoes and hail. The
entire Tri-State area will have potential to see severe weather, but
chances increase in the Enhanced risk area.

Storms are expected to start firing around 19-21Z with the highlight
of the severe storms being 22Z-03Z. The prime location for the
severe storms will be in the Enhance risk area and the storms will
move to the northeast. After 03Z, the severe weather threat will
lower over the following 9 hours. During this time, we will begin to
get the wrap-around precipitation from the northwest. These are
expected to just be showers with a few weak thunderstorms embedded
within. Less than 0.5 inches of QPF is expected with this system
with most of that falling north of highway 36.

As the low pressure system leaves the area on Friday, strong
northwesterly winds are expected to follow. Gusts up to 40 kts are
already expected due to the pressure rises.

Temperatures overnight tonight will cool to the upper 40s. High
temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and the southern
CWA reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Friday evening, split flow will be in place over the western have of
the nation.  A broad upper trough will extend west to east from the
West Coast to western Iowa and south into the Desert Southwest. The
northern split will cut north through the Bighorn Mountains of
Wyoming and up into Big Sky Country (Montana).  The southern split
will be the main concern for the Tri-State area a series of systems
moves through the region over the weekend.  Friday evening, a closed
low will continue to lift to the northeast, up into north central
Nebraska and the East River portion (East of the Missouri River) of
South Dakota.  As this system moves out of the region, expect wrap
around moisture on the back side of the system.  For the
evening/overnight hours, precipitation chances (20-40%) will be
limited to areas mainly along and west of Highway 27.

The concern over strong to severe thunderstorms across the Tri-State
area remains for Saturday.  A second low pressure system north of
the Four Corners region will move into eastern Colorado and western
Kansas during the day on Saturday.  Precipitation chances will
increase west to east across the region, with rain chances likely,
in the afternoon and evening, particularly in eastern Colorado and
areas along and north of Interstate 70.

As far as the severe weather threat for Saturday, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible for the CWA in the afternoon.
A boundary will be set up from southwestern Kansas to northeastern
Kansas.  This boundary will cut across the southeastern portions of
the CWA, with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma and Texas.
CAMs are showing potential for some storms firing up along the
boundary and moving to the north through the CWA as the low tracks
to the north northeast through the day.  Models are already showing
possibility of SBCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE values of
over 1200 J/kg in the area along the boundary as it lifts north
into the area. A jet streak will also be moving over the region
during the day on Saturday. Right now, the worst threat looks
to be to the southeast of our area in the warm sector and ahead
of the dryline. A slight shift northward of the system`s
expected track could potentially bring additional concerns for
severe weather to the area. With all of that being said, I wish
everyone in the path of severe weather the next few days, Qapla`
(good luck or success).

Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon, chances for precipitation
will gradually decrease from south to north.  The other concern with
this system will be the potential rainfall amounts.  The area has
been fairly dry recently.  However, thunderstorms moving through the
region today could bring a few tenths of rainfall to the
region. Paired with decent soundings and QPF values nearing an
inch in areas north of I-70, hydro concerns may be an issue.

Westerly flow sets up Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions
expected.  Temperatures will return to the 70s and 80s on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Strong to significantly severe storms are expected to impact the
region tonight and could to reduce categories at both KGLD and
KMCK. Stratus will continue to impact both sites over the next
few hours, at least. Clearing is occurring at KGLD and
approaching KMCK. Around 21Z is when storms are expected to
start firing and last into the night, however lingering showers
and storms will last throughout the night and into tomorrow
morning. A low pressure system will be moving through and cause
winds to become northwesterly overnight. Strong winds are
expected tomorrow from the northwest and gusty winds will
continue today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Portions of the Tri State region could see some potentially
impactful precipitation from showers and thunderstorms over an 84-
hour period starting today and going late into the upcoming weekend.
These chances will come in two rounds, one Thursday/Thursday night
and the other this weekend. Precipitation amounts will be highly
dependent on track and movement and overall coverage.

Rainfall totals that are currently forecasted during this time have
around a half inch or less south and east of a line from Hill City
to Colby, Kansas and southwest to the Tribune area. North and west
of this line, up to 0.80" to a localized 1.60" is possible. The
highest totals are currently focused west of a line from Burlington
Colorado to McCook Nebraska.

Area soils are pretty dry at this time and should be able to handle
around 1 to 2 inch rainfall, but will have to be monitored for
potential for any training of storms in localized areas, especially
for areas that may have seen a lot of rain today/tonight and may see
more storms over the weekend.

There are currently no Flood Watches in effect.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for KSZ027-041.
CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Wekesser
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...