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000
FXUS63 KGLD 170826
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief period of near critical to critical fire weather
  conditions is anticipated south of Interstate 70 Wednesday
  afternoon, mainly in Cheyenne County (CO) and Wallace/Greeley
  counties (KS).

- Winter weather may return to portions of the area Friday
  night into Saturday, when rain could mix with, or transition
  to, wet snow. Light snow accumulation is possible (mainly on
  grassy and elevated surfaces). Significant impacts are not
  anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong northwest winds continue across the area this afternoon
on the backside of the deep cut off low lifting into Nebraska.
The winds will continue through this afternoon, as well as the
patchy blowing dust, then rapidly diminish this evening as the
boundary layer decouples and the upper low continues moving
away. Tonight will see clear skies with lows ranging from the
lower 30s in northeast Colorado to the lower 40s in north
central Kansas.

On Wednesday will transition to a zonal flow aloft. A cold
front will be approaching southwest Nebraska late in the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures will climb into the
upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. Southwesterly winds are
forecast for the southwestern counties (south of Interstate 70
and west of Highway 25), which will result in afternoon relative
humidity minimums of 15% or lower. HREF probabilities are
around 30-50% for wind gusts of 25 mph or greater in the same
areas. Considered a Fire Weather Watch for those areas but could
not get a consensus with other offices, so will hold off for
now. Cold front will move through 00-06z for the entire area
with winds shifting to the north and gusting 30-40 mph through
the rest of the night. May see a few showers north of Interstate
70 behind the front with the upper wave, but looking at only a
few hundredths of measurable precipitation. Can`t completely
rule out a change over to light snow showers in far northern
Yuma County, Colorado, or southwest Nebraska, but not expecting
any accumulation. Low temperatures will be in the 30s to around
40.

Thursday will start cool, cloudy and breezy with a few
lingering morning showers, then some partial sun and dry
conditions in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s. For
Thursday night, will see another weak wave move out of Colorado
in the zonal flow. It will bring another chance for light rain
and snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 70, but once again
expecting only a few hundredths of measurable precipitation. Low
temperatures will be in the 30s, with lower 30s in northeast
Colorado where the light rain may mix with or change to snow,
with no accumulation expected.

Friday will see the chance for light showers continue in areas
north of Interstate 70 as the upper shortwave sharpens up and
slowly moves through. It will be mostly cloudy and cool with
highs in the 50s and east to southeast winds around 15 mph.
Precipitation chances increase through Friday night with a more
substantial shortwave trough moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to lower 30s allowing
rain to change to or mix with snow. Some minor accumulations on
grassy and elevated surfaces will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For the long term period, the overall forecast calls for generally
cool temperatures and some chances and precipitation.

Saturday and Sunday are forecast to generally be under northwest
flow as the upper low over the Central CONUS shifts off to the east.
Saturday has the potential to be significantly cooler than average
with high temperatures forecast in the 40`s. Temperatures could be
even cooler in the 30`s if thick cloud cover remains through the day
as some guidance is suggesting. Conversely, if the clouds break
earlier in the day, highs could approach 50. There is a chance for
precipitation, but it will depend on if a shortwave moves through
the larger flow. If so, some rain and snow showers would be possible
with no impacts expected. Sunday would then be warmer on the back
side of the system and with potential ridging aloft.

There`s not much agreement on the upper pattern going into next
week. So unfortunately, there is not much confidence in the
conditions to start the week. Most solutions do have another
shortwave disturbance moving through which would help keep
temperatures near or below average to begin the week and give a
chance for precipitation. The mid part of the week will depend
on if an upper ridge can setup over the area, or if a larger
trough from the west pushes it off to the east quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the day on Wednesday.
MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake
of a cold frontal passage Wed evening (~04-06Z).. near the end
of the 06Z TAF period. Light and variable winds (overnight) will
shift to the south and increase to 10-15 knots late Wed morning
(15-18Z), further increasing to 15-25 knots during the
afternoon -- on the eastern periphery of a developing/deepening
lee cyclone in Colorado. Winds will decrease and become
light/variable around or shortly before sunset.. as the lee
cyclone in Colorado tracks eastward over western Kansas. Winds
will abruptly shift to the north and increase to 20-30 knots Wed
evening (~04Z Thu).. in assoc/w rapid pressure rises as the
aforementioned lee cyclone progresses eastward across central-
eastern Kansas and a cooler airmass surges southward into the
Tri-State area. N winds may reach 25-35 knots for a short period
Wed eve/night.

MCK: VFR conditions will prevail through the day on Wednesday.
MVFR-IFR ceilings are anticipated to rapidly develop in the wake
of a cold frontal passage around or shortly after sunset Wed
evening (~01Z).. near the end of the 06Z TAF period. Light and
variable winds will prevail through Wed morning. Winds will
shift to the south and increase to 10-15 knots early Wed
afternoon (18-19Z), further increasing to 15-25 knots during the
afternoon -- on the eastern periphery of a developing/
deepening lee cyclone in Colorado. Winds may decrease and become
light/variable for a brief period shortly before sunset.. as
the lee cyclone in Colorado tracks eastward over western Kansas.
Winds will abruptly shift to the north and increase to 20-30
knots around or shortly after sunset (~01Z Thu).. in assoc/w
rapid pressure rises as the aforementioned lee cyclone
progresses eastward across central-eastern Kansas and a cooler
airmass surges southward into the Tri-State area. N winds may
reach 25-35 knots for a short period Wed eve/night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent