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000
FXUS62 KILM 230236
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1036 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore and allow for a gradual warmup
until a back door cold front arrives Wednesday night. High
pressure then builds from the north Thursday, retreating on
Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Moisture pooling at the surface leading to an increase in
dewpoints across most of the area. This is a good sign for the
agriculture community as the earlier concern for some frost
seems to have decreased. Still on the lookout for fog
development as it remains unclear if it will be a dew or fog
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid/upper trough axis is passing overhead this afternoon. Low-level
moisture is exiting to the east, with dry air being ushered in by a
deep layer of NW flow. Once this afternoons residual cloud cover
dissipates, overnight and Tuesday will be mainly clear, with winds
becoming light and variable as the surface ridge moves to the
coast. Winds inland stand a good chance of decoupling inland late
tonight, and this should lead to temps falling into the upper 30s in
low-lying areas. Would not be surprised if some of those typically
colder spots have a few patches of frost before sunrise Tuesday.
Coastal zones should continue to stir with a few kts of wind
overnight, but temps still likely to fall to around 40 there.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny, and with high pressure centered just
south of the area, temps will rebound back to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moving off the coast will allow us to emerge from the
cool pattern as southerly winds allow for a return to more normal
temperatures. Some guidance is showing some very light rain Wed
and/or Wed night but dewpoint depressions look too large Wed for
this to be possible esp given the weakness of the forcing. Perhaps
some small POPs will be warranted Wednesday night in future
forecasts but will stay dry at this time. d discussion here.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure wedges in from the north on Thursday though there is
some spread regarding how far south it gets, farther meaning more
cooling locally. Given that the downstream mid level trough is
fairly weak the less aggressive solutions appear more accurate. The
mid level ridge progresses east and moves overhead for Friday and
the weekend meaning generally warm and rain-free conditions. A cold
front approaches on Monday but it`s progress appears to be halted by
the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Some concern for fog
development later via the drop off in winds and the cumulus
field that developed this afternoon. This at times...although
not exacting can be a signal for development. Will monitor
closely.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday. There is a low
probability of MVFR ceilings Wednesday night and Thursday
associated with the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday: Seas will subside and winds diminish through the
period, as surface high pressure shifts from the inland Carolinas
to off the SE coast by Tuesday afternoon. Early afternoon obs
from buoy 41013 continue to show gusts of 25-30 kt and 7 ft seas, so
although conditions should improve by early evening, am planning to
maintain the Small Craft Advisory with the afternoon forecast
package. On Tuesday morning, the ridge axis looks to still be west
of the waters, which would result in a northerly wind component,
however during the afternoon, the high will move eastward allowing
winds to swing around to the ESE. Seas will be dominated by a 2-4 ft
ENE swell around 9-10 sec.

Tuesday through Saturday... HIgh pressure offshore will bring
SW winds locally until a backdoor cold front moves through
Wednesday night. Winds veer to NE behind this boundary which may
steepen wave faces especially if the E swell continues to
abate. Late in the period as the high both retreats and moves
east flow will gradually turn ashore and then to the SE,
generally capped in the 10-15 kt range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK/CRM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...ILM