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000
FXUS61 KILN 220503
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
103 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area tonight and shift off
to the southeast through the day on Monday, leading to dry
conditions and some moderation in temperatures. A chance of
showers will return Tuesday into Tuesday night as an upper level
disturbance moves through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface ridge axis to build into the area overnight. Latest
satellite imagery shows diurnally driven/enhanced cumulus
clouds decreasing in coverage. This trend will continue with
skies clearing.

Mostly clear skies and fairly light winds, will lead to a good
radiational cooling scenario. Lows tonight will drop into the
lower and mid 30s, with even some cooler readings possible in
outlying areas. Looking at temperature trends and probabilities
for temperatures below freezing - the highest probabilities for
freezing temperatures exist in the upper Scioto River Valley.
Have issued a freeze warning for counties over the northeast
where confidence is highest for freezing temperatures.

Will continue with a Frost Advisory tonight across the
remainder of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The surface high pressure will shift slowly off to our southeast
Monday. Weak low level CAA Monday morning will transition to more
neutral through the afternoon. Still though, with some lingering low
level moisture, some isolated to scattered cu development will be
possible form late morning into early afternoon. Temperatures
will moderate a bit with highs on Monday mostly in the lower
60s.

Any cu should dissipate by evening. In northwest flow aloft,
some weak mid level energy will lead to an increase in mid and
high level clouds through the Monday night. Lows Monday night
will will be in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active pattern expected to start the extended forecast period as an
H5 shortwave trough is forecast to swing through the Upper Midwest
region. Coverage in showers expected to increase late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, particularly NW of I-71. Showers will
continue to translate southeastward as the cold front moves through.
Models are pretty meager with instability production, but still
could observe a few rumbles of thunder with this system.

Precip will have shifted east of our CWA Wednesday morning. Surface
high pressure builds in through the day from the Great Lakes region.
Seasonably cool temperatures settle in during the middle of the work
week behind the frontal passage. Favorable radiational cooling
conditions will likely lead to some frost development Wednesday
night. H5 ridging will begin to nudge in from the Central Plains,
with height rises leading to a warming trend through the end of the
work week and into the weekend.

As we head into Friday, a shortwave trough begins to travel through
the central CONUS and takes a northeasterly track through portions
of the Midwest region. The Ohio Valley remains on the warm side of
this particular system, so many locations will observe highs in the
70s both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, several rounds of
showers and storms are to be expected these days as an active period
sets up through the weekend. As of now, this negatively tilted
trough remains far enough west that the worst of the severe weather
will remain out of our CWA, but will have to monitor trends in the
location of this trough.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions persist for the TAF period. Skies remain clear
through morning before mid and upper level clouds build Monday
night.

Light and variable winds are expected tonight. Southwesterly winds
increase on Monday.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday.
Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>082-088.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046-
     054>056-063>065-073-074.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...Campbell