543
FXUS63 KIND 011747
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
147 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Sunny and Warm today.

- Partly Cloudy and mild Tonight.

- Low chance for showers or storms Thursday, additional thunderstorms
  expected late Thursday into the weekend and again early next
  week.

- Above normal temperatures expected to continue into next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

No changes needed to the forecast this morning. Isolated showers
that were passing through central Indiana earlier have exited off to
the east. Removed mentionable PoPs from the forecast for the rest of
today. Otherwise, continue to expect slowly-clearing skies with warm
and breezy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Synopsis:

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure in place
over eastern KY and eastern TN. Low pressure was found over MN with
a cool front stretching south into eastern IA, NW MO and to SE KS.
This was resulting in a southerly flow across Indiana. Radar shows
convection in place ahead of the front, including over NW IL.
Showers were weakening. CI blow off from the convection was spilling
over Indiana. Aloft a weak ridge was found over KY and TN, while
mainly a zonal flow was seen streaming across the plains to the Ohio
valley.

Today...

Models show the weak short wave generating the convection to the
west will push east of Indiana this morning and continuing a
diminishing trend. As this occurs, weak ridging aloft is expected to
remain over eastern TN/E KY and OH.  This will allow for a continued
flow of mild Pacific air aloft. Meanwhile at the surface, surface
high pressure remaining over Eastern KY will continue to remain in
control of the weather across Central Indiana, providing warm
southerly winds.

After some morning high clouds due to the CI  blow off, Partly
Cloudy skies will be expected by afternoon as we remain under the
influence of the ridging aloft and surface high.  Forecast soundings
show a dry column, but hint at late afternoon CU development as
convective temperatures are reached. Southerly flow and weak warm
air advection will allow for high temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s.

Tonight...

Somewhat of a transition is expected tonight. The surface high to
the east is expected to drift farther east, while surface low
pressure is expected to push into the plains. This continues to keep
southerly flow in place across Central Indiana and hint at the
formation of a warm front setting up over central and northern
Indiana. Aloft the ridge axis is suggested to push farther east,
allowing for more of a southwest flow to stream into Indiana. Some
weak forcing is shown to push toward Indiana overnight amid the
southwest flow aloft. However forecast soundings fail to show deep
saturation at any time, and just hint at the arrival of the warm
front within the lower levels. Thus confidence for rain late tonight
is very low and will try to not include this in the forecast given
the limited moisture and very marginal forcing available. Given the
warm front across the area, will trend lows toward the upper 50s and
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Ridging will be moving out with an approaching troughing system
continuing the above normal temperatures and storm chances through
the long term period. Thursday will be the warmest day of the long
term and is forecasted to get near the daily record highs. The first
main wave of this system comes at the end of this week followed by a
short wave or two before another large system is expected to bring
more storms at the end of the period.

Depending on how long the warm front associated with this first
upper wave stick around, Thursday may see some precipitation with
the the northern counties being the most likely to be impacted. The
best chances for PoPs with this end of week system will come on
Friday ahead of the associated cold front. Still seeing a variety of
solutions when it comes to timing, so confidence remains on the
lower end as to when it will rain, but regional models are trending
towards the Euro time of arrival solution rather than the faster and
more expansive GFS solution. On the other hand, the GFS and regional
models are also faster to move the front and rain through than the
Euro. For now keeping with guidance on PoPs that include a longer
timeframe for PoPs due to these timing discrepancies.

While timing is unsure with the late week system, still expecting a
break in rain at some point Saturday before a short wave brings more
showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday and there will likely
be another brief dry period before the next upper low moves in early
next week.

At this time, not expecting severe weather associated with any of
these systems but multiple rounds of rain may bring brief localized
flooding and renewed and prolonged river flooding.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Impacts:

- VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

- Very low probability of a shower or thunderstorm after 00z.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected today as a weak cold front slides in from
the northwest. Winds begin southwesterly, becoming northwesterly as
the front arrives. Thereafter, winds take on a northeasterly
direction before becoming easterly by Thursday morning. Winds
continue to veer and become southerly by the end of the TAF period.
Some gusts around 20kt are likely early this afternoon.

High clouds will be present much of the time, with some low cumulus
during the daytime hours and occasional mid-level clouds overnight.

A very low probability (less than 15 percent) exists for a shower or
thunderstorm along the cold front. Best chance appears to be HUF and
BMG, and would most likely occur after 00z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff