Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 150840
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday - just not
  as warm as it has been.

- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the area
  through this afternoon, lingering into the early evening in the
  southeast. Rainfall will generally be a quarter to half of an
  inch.

- A deeper passing system aloft brings a threat of some rain/snow
  showers on Monday.

- Hard freeze conditions Monday night could kill any cold
  sensitive vegetation that has emerged prematurely due to early
  season warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows the prefrontal trough, and most of the
storms associated with it, has moved to the southeast of
Kentucky. However, the larger weather system`s cold front is still
off to the northwest and this will support some redevelopment of
convection into the morning hours. The rain has leveled the
temperatures through the area with readings in the mid 50s to
lower 60s while dewpoints are generally within a degree or two of
those values. With the departure of the MCS, winds have settled
back to light and variable most places through eastern Kentucky
with a return to south winds of 5 to 10 mph expected through dawn
before the cold front arrives, while the sky remains cloudy.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict general zonal flow well downstream of a deep
closed low trough over the northern Baja Peninsula. Within this
west to east air stream at mid levels, some weak energy will pass
by aloft, but the better concentration stays north of the Ohio
Valley through Saturday. Late in the period, a large and deep
trough will head into the Ohio Valley from south central Canada
and start to drop heights over Kentucky by 00Z Sunday. On account
of the small model spread aloft through the short term, the
blended NBM solution used as the starting point for the grids, but
with the inclusion of the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs today into
tonight.

Sensible weather will feature more showers and storms around as
cooler conditions prevail but still above normal temperatures into
the weekend. The best shot at more storms will come with the cold
front that eventually drags through this part of the state later
this afternoon. Low clouds and light rain will linger into the
night along with areas of fog developing in the post frontal
subsidence. Some sunshine should return for Saturday, though
temperatures will be similar to today on account of the arrival of
a cooler air mass from a passing area of high pressure.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to fine tune
the PoPs into the evening with the inclusion of the latest CAMs
details. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly left alone given
the limited potential for radiational cooling or enhanced drying.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024

Surface high pressure will be in place to start the period. Upper-
level zonal flow will keep moderate temperatures across the area.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid-40s with d
anytime highs for Sunday expected to be in the upper-50s to lower-
60s. A dry cold front will cross through the area Sunday afternoon.
This will usher colder temperatures back into the area with below
average temperatures expected to persist through the early part of
next week. The upper-level trough responsible for the cold front is
still forecast to pivot toward the CWA and bring the potential for
rain/snow mix to the region for Monday afternoon. The areas mostly
likely going to see PoP will be along and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Models continue to hint at another chance of precipitation
on Tuesday as another weak cold front will move through the region
Tuesday afternoon. Surface high pressure returns for the middle of
next week with temperatures gradually increasing through the week.
The active period continues as models bring another system through
the region for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024

In general, VFR conditions are expected through much of the
overnight, with brief reductions to MVFR and momentary IFR as
showers and thunderstorms move through into the day Friday. CIGs
will becomes increasingly more prevalent in the MVFR category
later in the morning, though, with the potential for IFR, or low-
MVFR, conditions along with showers beginning around or shortly
after 18Z/Fri. Continued low CIGs follow into the evening for most
locations. Winds, outside of storms, will be from the south to
southwest at 10 kts or so. With storms, they could exceed 35 kts.
The winds then become westerly and northwesterly prevailing by
midday Friday as the cold front passes across the area - but with
speeds generally remaining below 10 kts sustained.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF


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