Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
147 FXUS62 KKEY 060825 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 425 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Mostly clear and warm conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Monday morning, with radars detecting only a few small showers over the Straits of Florida. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast around 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our local weather regime. The 00Z Key West sounding reflected this, with inversions based near 5500 and 10K feet and dry air through the mid levels. The sampled PW of 1.35 inches was near normal for the date. More recent MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows slightly lower PWs filtering into our region from the east. Mostly clear, very warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through the upcoming work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico. Just enough low level moisture will remain to keep slight 10 percent rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday, then an even drier airmass during the mid to later part of the week, with moisture depth squashed below 5000 feet, should result in near zero rain chances from Tuesday night through Friday. Temps will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints will gradually creep upward through the week as our low level flow slowly veers to the SE, and peak afternoon heat indices near 100F will become likely late in the week. Heading into the weekend, deep troughing over the eastern CONUS will suppress the subtropical ridge south of our area, with a surface frontal boundary easing down the Florida peninsula. The latest guidance consensus stalls this front near Lake Okeechobee, which is much more in accordance with climatology as we head into mid May. Some moisture pooling to the south of the front will allow slight rain chances to return for the weekend, but at this time we don`t expect any significant change to our sensible weather. Temps will likely remain above normal through the weekend, with increasingly muggy dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 425 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Overnight observations show E/SE winds of 14 to 18 knots along the reef and at Long Key C-MAN, with seas at Satan Shoal running just above 4 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines remain posted for the Straits today, and will probably be needed for other areas as well tonight. From the synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through midweek. Breezes will turn to the southeast and south and relax later in the week, as the high shifts southward and weakens over the western Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR and gusty easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the morning. Forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggest rain chances are near nil. && .CLIMATE... Today`s sunset will be at 759 PM in Key West. Starting tomorrow, May 7th, sunset will be at 800 PM. The sunset will be 800 PM or later in Key West until August 17th. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...Jacobson Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest