Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 041956
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WAA FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
WARMING...WITH HIGHS TAPPING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON THURSDAY.  THE OPPORTUNITY OF A FROST OR FREEZE IS LOW OVERNIGHT
AS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA HELPS KEEP
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR THE
TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION. TD/S
ARE ONLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 22-
32% RANGE.

THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST WAS DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
THE MET...MAV AND CONSALL WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE WAS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY AFTN...ABOUT 30 MILES FARTHER
SOUTH...PLACING THE FRONT ALONG THE KS BORDER. THIS COULD BE THE
RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION FIRING ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. MULTI-MODEL SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY HAS
DIMINISHED ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ENHANCED ACROSS NWRN KS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THE MODELS WILL TREND NORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY RISE INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS SWRN NEB. SFC
WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO KS BUT STILL INCLUDES SWRN NEB WHERE POOLING APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE 700MB CAP LATE SATURDAY AFTN. 30 TO 40 POPS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SWRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

HIGHS FRIDAY RISE INTO THE 80S. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE SHIFT
IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MIXES TO 750MB WHILE THE COOLER NAM PREFERS
725MB. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THERE IS STILL AN CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN SHERIDAN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTN WHICH COULD
SPREAD EAST FRIDAY EVENING NORTH OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FCST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE CNTL PLAINS AND EXIT TUESDAY. SPAGHETTI
PLOTS OF SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS USING THIS MORNINGS MODEL
DATA INDICATE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF
NEBRASKA SUNDAY BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY WELL SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD
THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS...CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DROPPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. H500MB TEMPERATURES IN ALL MODELS ARE -15C OR
COLDER.

COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 10KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS. VFR IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH 18Z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MANY AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SEVERAL LARGER
RIVERS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING BANKFULL.  THE HIGH FLOWS ARE A
COMBINATION OF THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE BEGINNING
ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT.  THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR LEWELLEN AND
LISCO ARE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FLOOD ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  THE
LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE NORTH PLATTE AT LEWELLEN TO CLIMB ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE.  THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IS STILL BEHAVING...BUT
RISING.  RVS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ROSCOE...SOUTH PLATTE
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE AND THE PLATTE CHANNEL NEAR BRADY.  THIS COMING
WEEKEND WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A CLOSE
EYE AS RECENT PRECIP HAS MOST SOILS NEARLY SATURATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS



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