Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 251801
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SURFACE LOW CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MONTANA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SERN MONTANA INTO
EASTERN WYOMING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTER MOVING FROM NERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING INTO NCTRL SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM NCTRL NEBR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING SNOW AT LEAST PARTIAL MELTING AS IT
REACHES THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS BOTH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. POPS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON AT VTN EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA COUNTY. CHANCE POPS TO EXTEND
SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF REMAINING NCTRL NEBRASKA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF SWRN NEBR EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONEILL AND BURWELL AREAS BY 00Z/26TH AS
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO WRN SANDHILLS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WITH ONLY NEUTRAL TO WEAK CAA...HIGHS FOR
THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL ACTUALLY RANGE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER
40S NCTRL TO 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ACROSS SWRN NEBR. TEMPERATURES NEAR MAV GUIDANCE.

NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION. H85 TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR -8C ACROSS VTN THOUGH ONEILL
LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR -3C AT IML. CORRESPONDING LOWS FROM THE LOWER
20S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 20S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ERN PNHDL AND NCTRL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A HYBRID OF ARCTIC AND PACIFIC AIR WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALREADY BE IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND BEGIN A TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A
BIG DEAL. NEGATIVES FOR GETTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
INCLUDE A DRY LAYER FROM AROUND H700 TO H600 MB INITIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LAYER DOES MOISTEN SOME LATER
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LIFT OVERALL THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY IS
WEAK...AND WHAT LIFT THERE IS REALLY ISN/T FOCUSED IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER. SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT.

AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VERY MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING
AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. H850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 13C
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATER THANKSGIVING DAY...AND WARM
FURTHER TO AROUND 17C FRIDAY. MIXING WILL ALLOW THIS WARMER AIR
ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE 50S
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THANKSGIVING DAY AND 60S FRIDAY.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE BULLISH IN PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER...KEEPING
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT H850 MB SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 7C
NORTH AND 13C SOUTH...SO FEEL THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE
40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES SOUTH IS A PRETTY GOOD
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY SUNDAY ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE ARCTIC
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THOUGH THE AREA...AND A FAIRLY COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR MOVING EAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY EXIT EARLY TOMORROW. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW...INITIALLY
SOME AREAS MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONTAL...INCLUDING KVTN AREA. MID LEVELS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD END MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY FOLLOWS AND WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW ZONES...WEST OF KVTN. NW
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO AROUND 25 KTS
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MORNING THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
WINDS SHOULD FALL TO LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK




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