Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011133 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SD THIS MORNING SHOULD
EXIT THE FCST AREA 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE TODAY AND AN INVERTED SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO SWRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH
90S ACROSS SWRN NEB AND 80S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS WILL SIT IN THE
60S NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC LOW WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST
TODAY PULLING COOLER AIR SOUTH ACROSS WRN NEB. THE INVERTED TROF
COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
GIVEN PWAT AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S.

AT 08Z...STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE WHICH SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT
15Z-16Z AS INDICATED IN THE RAP MODEL.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS DISTURBANCES ACROSS WRN WY AND SE BRITISH COLUMBIA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THE WYOMING DISTURBANCE WOULD BE THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING WRN NEB. THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB.

POPS TONIGHT ARE LIMITED TO 50 PERCENT AS WINDS WITH BE NORTH THIS
AFTN AND THEN LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHICH IS 180 DEGREES OUT OF
PHASE WITH THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW RAIN EVENT. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD ACTUALLY SUGGEST A LIKELY POP GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE
IN THE QPF PLUME BETWEEN 06Z TONIGHT AND 12Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF
THURSDAY WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAKOTAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE
WAVE. FEATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE NOT WELL DEFINED SO IT IS HARD TO
FIND A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER AS
THE FASTER TIMING OF THE WAVE BRINGS STORMS THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER WITH 35+ KTS OF DEEP LAYER A
SHEAR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONT.

SHORTWAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
USHERING IN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE STATE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES UP CANADIAN COAST AND INTO ALASKA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP BRING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LEAD WAVE TRACKS OVER A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SET UP
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...SENDING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND COOLER TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY. FOG AND SMOKE HAS REDUCED VSBY
TO 1 TO 3 MILES IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY 15Z.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS WY AND SRN ALBERTA
SHOULD DROP THROUGH NEB SETTING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORM COVERAGE COULD BECOME LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...CDC





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