Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 242029 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upper level ridge has a firm grip on the area, with heights in the
process of slowly rising across the region. Nevertheless a weak
surface trough should be the focus for isolated thunderstorm
development later this afternoon across northwest Nebraska. With
weak winds aloft and warm mid level temperatures, storms should
weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and this is
indicated by most hi-res short term model guidance. Otherwise
south winds should stay up a bit tonight as a southerly low level
jet and tight surface pressure gradient reside across the area.
This will help keep lows warm, with many areas remaining near 70
degrees.

A strong area of low pressure will track west to east across
central Canada Tuesday. This will drive a cold front south into
northwest Nebraska by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop near the front near and after peak heating. The better
chance will be Tuesday night with more on that in the section
below. As far as temperatures, expect another hot day Tuesday.
Should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, as area will be
in favorable location for the heat just in front of the
approaching cold front. Will see highs nearing 100 degrees at most
locations, with areas around O`Neill a little cooler due to
higher humidity (but it will feel just as hot due to heat index).
Meanwhile, Valentine and the surrounding drier areas will
approach 105 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The models are pegging the disturbance across AZ this afternoon as
the catalyst for numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night.
This is probably too fast to lift the disturbance through the
Rockies. The ongoing convection across AZ should delay the arrival
of the disturbance until late Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The forecast is generally for rain chances of 30 to 50 percent.
There will still be abundant moisture and a cold front for focus.
Rain chances and much cooler weather continue Wednesday.

The subtropical upper level ridge affecting the Cntl Plains will
migrate back into the Desert Southwest Thursday through Monday. A
deep upper level low will develop across the Ern U.S. and this will
draw cool Canadian air into the Upper midwest which backs into
Nebraska later this week and through the weekend. The forecast is
generally dry with near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The HRRR, HRRR exp, RAP and NAM models suggest isolated thunderstorms
will develop KMER-KAIA around 21z today. The area impacted is
generally along and north of a line from KOGA-KTIF-KONL and storm
motion will be 27-30020kt. Storm activity should dissipate around
03z this evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Relative humidity around 10 percent and winds gusting to 35 mph in
the Valentine area is producing critical fire danger conditions. A
Red Flag Warning is in place for this condition.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Tuesday for NEZ005-006-008-009-025>027-036>038-057>059-069>071.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ208.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC


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