Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 180530
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS...WITH SOME
OF THIS WIND MIXING TO THE SURFACE...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH H85
TEMPERATURES RISING FROM AROUND 8C THIS EVENING TO 11C BY MORNING.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES REACHING
21C ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND 12C IN THE FAR EAST. GOOD MIXING
/ABOVE 700 MB WEST AND NEAR 800MB EAST/ WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S WEST...AND NEAR 70 EAST.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. 500 METER
WIND SPEEDS NEARING 28 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 TO 27 MPH
AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING A WIND ADVISORY TO BE
NEEDED...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE AND WILL PASS ALONG TO THE NEXT
SHIFT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS TENDS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH...KEEPING IT DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH 00Z. THE EC AND NAM TEND HAVE THE FRONT EVOLVING FASTER
AND KICKING OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF OUR CWA BEFORE INITIATION BEGINS.
TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS MODEL WITH THE EVOLVING LOW BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD AND REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. PRESTORM
ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
ALSO FAVORABLE WITH 25 TO 30 KT LOW LEVEL WINDS. SUNDAY CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA
ALONG THE FRONT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING US DRY UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER OUR CWA. HAVE BROUGHT
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 15KTS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 25KTS SUSTAINED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...GOMEZ
AVIATION...SPRINGER






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