Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241708
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1208 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Areal coverage of showers continue to focus across the Panhandle
and west. The question remains how much of the returns on radar are
reaching the ground. Today`s forecast updated for pops, weather
and cloud coverage through the afternoon that is expected to

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Today and Tonight...midlevel cloudiness is expected to spread across
the forecast today and slowly disperse tonight. An upper level
disturbance will be moving through Kansas and the models are not
showing any measureable rainfall across Western and North Central
Nebraska. The HRRR and NAM models show midlevel frontogenesis and
the reflectivity products show light rain which is falling through a
dry layer below 700mb. This would probably be sprinkles given the 35
to 45 percent RH below 700mb shown in all models.

The temperature forecast uses blended guidance plus bias correction
for highs in the 70s to around 80. lows tonight fall into the 40s
and 50s. Pacific high pressure will continue build slowly through
the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

A relatively quiet start to the long term is in store across central
Nebraska. High pressure remains stationed over the northern Plains
on Thursday. Rain moving north out of Kansas will remain just south
of the forecast area. Rain eventually moves back into the area on
Friday as an upper-level trough pivots across the northern Plains.
Rain and thunderstorms will spread southward throughout Friday,
starting first in the north by mid-morning and slowly moving
southward by evening. Severe threat with these storms remains low,
however, cannot be entirely ruled out. With steep lapse rates and
Cape values approaching 1000 J/Kg by afternoon, an isolated severe
storm is possible. Hail will be the main threat along with the
potential for heavy rainfall.

Rain and thunderstorm chances stick around through the first part of
Saturday as the trough moves eastward. Rain will slowly come to an
end by Saturday evening, with rain ending first in the west by mid-
morning and eventually ending in the east by late afternoon. Another
strong high pressure builds across the northern Rockies and northern
Plains for Sunday lasting through the beginning of next week
allowing a return to dry weather across central Nebraska.

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side for both Thursday and
Friday with highs for the most part in the low to mid-70s both days.
A slight warming trend begins again for the weekend and into next
week. Highs rise into the low 80s Saturday and mid to upper 80s for
Sunday and the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Visual flight rules expected through 18Z Thursday. Isolated to
scattered rain showers will continue to lift northeast through 22Z
across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and west with cloud bases
locally down to 8 kft otherwise aob 10 kft through the period.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TLK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Keck



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