Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 222019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
319 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

H5 hand analysis from this morning had a low amplitude
ridge extending across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS. The ridge
axis was centered from the western Dakotas, south to the Texas
panhandle. West of the ridge, a closed low was noted in the Gulf of
Alaska with a trough extending southward to off the coast of
Washington state. At the base of this trough, a nice shortwave was
noted about 400 miles west of Portland Oregon. Downstream of this
feature, a broad area of 50 to 70 meter ht falls were noted from
northern Nevada, north into the Idaho panhandle and western Montana.
East of the ridge axis, a closed low was located over far
southeastern Ontario. A trough extended south of this feature into
the Florida panhandle. 50 to 200 meter ht falls were noted across
the Mid Atlantic and New England with the deepest ht falls
extending from the Delmarva peninsula north to Long Island New York.
At the surface, low pressure was located over central Montana with a
stationary front extending from central Montana, east across
southern North Dakota, into northern Minnesota. A surface trough
extended south of the low from central Montana along the front
ranges of Wyoming and Colorado. Skies were clear this afternoon and
temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 77 at O`Neill and Ainsworth
to 82 at Imperial.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface high pressure as a result of upper level ridging across the
Rocky Mountains, will keep conditions dry and quiet for the
remainder of the weekend. Mostly clear skies will prevail across
central Nebraska, with some light cirrus moving across the northern
portion of the state as a weak trough moves across the Dakotas.
Plenty of dry air and clear skies will keep temperatures on the
colder side for Saturday night. Most locations will see lows in the
mid to upper 30s, with locally warmer overnight temperatures (low to
mid 40s) across the northeastern forecast area.

For Sunday, dry weather and clear skies continue with slightly
cooler temperatures forecasted. Highs only reach the mid to upper
60s by the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Mid range...Sunday night through Tuesday...In the mid term,
temperatures will be the main forecast concern, along with the
threat for stratus/fog development Tuesday morning, and a threat for
precipitation Tuesday afternoon. On Sunday night, high pressure will
build east of the Dakotas into Minnesota. Low level winds will begin
to veer to the east than southeast overnight increasing moisture
advection across the high plains. Low level moisture advection will
be strongest across eastern Colorado and western Kansas and the
latest NAM 12 does indicate a decent chance for stratus development.
Based on the latest NAM12 soln, this stratus should remain off to
the southwest of the forecast area. That being said, if the
progression of the high were to speed up, the threat for stratus in
our southwestern forecast area would increase. On Monday, the H5
flow will begin to transition to a trough across the intermountain
west. This will deepen a surface trough of low pressure along the
front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming, increasing southerly winds and
low level moisture advection across western and north central
Nebraska. This moisture advection is supposed to hold off until
midday Monday, so the development of low clouds across the forecast
area is not anticipated until after sundown Monday evening. That
being said, highs Monday should rise into the upper 60s given
expected full sun. Southerly winds will continue into Monday night
with additional low level moisture advection noted. This will result
in mild temperatures Monday night along with the development of
stratus/fog given the nearly saturated boundary layer. Forecast time
sections taken across southwestern, central and eastern portions of
the forecast area all indicate a decent saturated boundary layer at
12z Tuesday with a dry mid layer and a moist upper level. This would
be conducive of stratus mainly with a threat for fog on the western
periphery of the stratus. With this in mind, went ahead and added a
patchy fog mention across the southwest and western cwa for Tuesday
morning. On Tuesday, the surface trough will migrate east into the
central CWA by afternoon. Westerly winds behind the surface trough
will lead to clearing in the west with low clouds expected to hang
on in the central and east on Tuesday. Later in the afternoon, the
threat for thunderstorms will increase in the eastern cwa as mid
level lapse rates will increase. Inherited some 20-30 pops in the
northeastern zones for Tuesday afternoon/evening and left them in

Wednesday through Saturday...Ridging aloft will build back into the
region midweek with unseasonably warm temperatures and mainly dry
conditions. Highs will be in the 70s for Wednesday, Thursday and
Friday. The forecast was initialized with lower 40s for lows
Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Given the expected dry airmass in
place, these initialized lows were lowered for the forecast as they
were some 10 degrees above climo. Also, there is some differences
between the EC and GFS solutions with respect to a back door cold
front Friday night. The GFS is colder and forces the front into the
forecast area, while the ECMWF is warmer and is 12 to 24 hours
slower with the front. Temperatures will be slightly cooler for
Saturday with highs in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface high pressure will continue to remain over the
central US through the weekend. Aviation conditions are expected to
be quiet through this timeframe as well. Clear skies will continue
through much of the TAF period. Gusty winds this afternoon will
slowly diminish around sunset. As a trough axis slides south through
Nebraska tonight, expect a wind shift from the south to northwest
between 03Z and 06Z at both terminals. Winds will then remain under
10 knots on Sunday.


Issued at 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Fire weather concerns continue for zones 204, 206, and 208 through
this evening. Criteria is being met across several observation sites
at this time and therefore will continue the Red Flag Warnings until
they expire at 7pm CDT (6 pm MDT). Fire weather concerns will be on
the decrease after today as cooler temperatures and lower winds are
forecasted for Sunday.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for



LONG TERM...Buttler
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