Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 031654
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1154 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AT 08Z...WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS...WRN NEBRASKA AND WRN KS. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXCEPT 72 AT VTN. SKIES
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
COMING OUT OF NERN CO AND TO REFINE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION GROWING
SLOWLY UPSCALE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WAS MORE EFFICIENT YESTERDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE DESPITE
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CAPE...BUT SMALL SCALE FORCING
ALLOWED A COUPLE OF WEAK TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON
YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL TODAY. SOME
SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS MIXING SO FAR IS NOT
HOMOGENEOUS SO TRYING TO IDENTFY TRENDS IN TEMP CLIMB IS
DIFFICULT...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE SW COULD BE
SOME TEMP STRUGGLES THERE...BUT OVERALL MAX TEMPS WERE NOT
ADJUSTED MUCH YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM TEXAS NORTH THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED 30C ACROSS SWRN SD...WRN NEBR...INTO ERN CO
AND FAR WRN KS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY WEST OF HWY 83 AND SOUTH TO THE EAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 MPH AND PROMOTE DEEP MIXING. THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT
VTN INDICATES DEEP MIXING TO 600MB. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SCTRL SD INTO NCTRL NEBR.
CITIES SUCH AS GORDON...VALENTINE...AND AINSWORTH ARE ALL
FORECAST TO REACH 97 TO 99 DEGREES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 ALSO EXPECTED IN FAR SWRN NEBR INTO WRN KS.

A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS NWRN NEW MEXICO INTO SWRN CO WILL
FOLLOW SWRLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE THE PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF SW WINDS
TODAY...THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 IN THE ERN PNHDL AND PARTS
OF THE WRN SANDHILLS AND GIVING MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT AS OPPOSED TO NEAR 15 PERCENT WHICH OCCURRED ON
WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO BE 10-12K FEET AGL AND MU
CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND WEST OF HWY 61
AFTER 20Z.

GOING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...20-30 POPS WILL EXPAND
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT IN
TANDEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET. ONLY GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 15 KTS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOVE 25 KTS AFTER 03Z IN SOME
AREAS...ANY STORMS BY THEN WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. LOWS
TONIGHT MILD FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER FROM THE LOWER 60S WESTERN
SANDHILLS TO NEAR 70 IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND TROUGH/LOW
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA WILL
CAUSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN/FLATTEN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONT WILL PASS THEN
STALL TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE STRONGER FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY A SFC TROUGH WILL BE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN A CONCERN WITH A FAIRLY DRY BL LAYER. TEMPS
STILL ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE
AT LEAST A FEW ISOLD STORMS...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE TO LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND.

WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WILL HIGHS STILL IN THE 90S. HAVE
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CWA.

SUNDAY SLIGHT COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. WRAP AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS N CENTRAL
BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE
CWA TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL...AROUND 80.
THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND COULD SEE SOME LIFT AS FLOW RIDES OVER
THE STALL FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING AND HAVE
INCLUDED A PRO30 FOR 5SM -TSRA BKN100 FROM 03Z-09Z AT KLBF AND
04Z-10Z AT KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG



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